Marseille x Angers Betting tips for October 4 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Marseille x Angers, Friday, 4/10/2024

📅 4/10/2024 15:45

Marseille 1.25

X 5.80

Angers 10.00

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Marseille x Angers:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Marseille x Angers

The main points for the tip for Marseille x Angers: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Marseille in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-66.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Angers in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-388.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Marseille scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Angers, Marseille scored at least 3 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Marseille x Angers, with Marseille as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Angers conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Marseille conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Angers. 👉 Marseille has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Angers playing at home.

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Analysis from Marseille x Angers for the France Ligue 1 – 4 of October

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Marseille and Angers.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1194241 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Marseille x Angers

Is it worth betting on Marseille?

🔵 Marseille: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 85.57% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 860 times – this would give you a profit of $215.00
• And would lose other 140 times – losing -$140.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$75.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 6.38% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 60 times – having a profit of $288.00;
• And would have lost other 940 times – with a loss of -$940.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$652.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Angers?

🔴 Angers: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 8.05%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 10.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 80 times – profiting $720.00;
• And would lose other 920 times – having a loss of -$920.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$200.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Marseille x Angers

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Marseille
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Marseille x Angers

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.5 Marseille, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.5 Marseille. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Marseille x Angers

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.