Monagas x Carabobo Betting tips for October 30 in Venezuela Primera Division

Our betting tip for Monagas x Carabobo, Wednesday, 30/10/2024

📅 30/10/2024 21:00

Monagas 2.05

X 3.10

Carabobo 3.40

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Monagas x Carabobo:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Monagas x Carabobo

The main points for the tip for Monagas x Carabobo: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Monagas in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-125.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Carabobo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Monagas has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Carabobo playing at home.

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Analysis from Monagas x Carabobo for the Venezuela Primera Division – 30 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Monagas x Carabobo right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1212930 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Monagas x Carabobo

Is betting on Monagas worth it?

🔵 Monagas: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 41.72%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.05. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 420 times – having a profit of $441.00;
• And would have lost other 580 times – with a loss of -$580.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$139.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.51% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 320 times – having a profit of $672.00;
• And would lose other 680 times – having a loss of -$680.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$8.00.

Should you bet on Carabobo?

🔴 Carabobo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 26.78% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 270 times – profiting $648.00;
• And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$82.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Monagas x Carabobo

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Monagas
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Monagas x Carabobo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Monagas and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Monagas.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Monagas.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Monagas x Carabobo

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.