Carlisle x Doncaster Betting tips for November 23 in England League 2

Our betting tip for Carlisle x Doncaster, Saturday, 23/11/2024

📅 23/11/2024 15:00

Carlisle 3.31

X 3.30

Doncaster 2.10

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Carlisle x Doncaster:

🔮 Doncaster wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Doncaster, you can win up to $1050.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Carlisle x Doncaster: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Carlisle in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Doncaster in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $640.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Doncaster scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Doncaster, Carlisle scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 Carlisle matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Carlisle x Doncaster, with Carlisle as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Carlisle conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 road matches, Doncaster has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Carlisle x Doncaster for the England League 2 – 23 of November

When the best bet on Carlisle x Doncaster is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1225929 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Carlisle x Doncaster

Is it a good idea to bet on Carlisle?

🔵 Carlisle: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.43% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.31. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 210 times – profiting $485.10;
• And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$304.90.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 21.42% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $483.00
• And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$307.00.

Is it worth betting on Doncaster?

🔴 Doncaster: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 57.14% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 570 times – having a profit of $627.00;
• And would lose other 430 times – having a loss of -$430.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$197.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Carlisle x Doncaster

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Carlisle
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Carlisle x Doncaster

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Carlisle, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Carlisle.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Doncaster.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Carlisle x Doncaster

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.