Napoli x Roma Betting tips for November 24 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Napoli x Roma, Sunday, 24/11/2024

📅 24/11/2024 17:00

Napoli 1.73

X 3.65

Roma 4.60

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Napoli x Roma:

🔮 Napoli wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Napoli, you can win up to $865.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for Napoli x Roma: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $30.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Roma, Napoli scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Roma conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Napoli conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Roma. 👉 Napoli has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Roma playing at home.

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Analysis from Napoli x Roma for the Italy Serie A – 24 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Napoli x Roma right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1226284 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Napoli x Roma

Is it a good idea to bet on Napoli?

🔵 Napoli: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 77.76% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.73. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 780 times – this would give you a profit of $569.40
• And would have lost other 220 times – with a loss of -$220.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$349.40.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.83% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.65. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 130 times – profiting $344.50;
• And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$525.50.

Should you bet on Roma?

🔴 Roma: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 9.4%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 90 times – this would give you a profit of $324.00
• And would have lost other 910 times – with a loss of -$910.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$586.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Napoli x Roma

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Napoli
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Napoli x Roma

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Napoli, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Napoli.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Roma.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Napoli x Roma

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.