Sassuolo x Fiorentina Betting tips for December 6 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Sassuolo x Fiorentina, Saturday, 6/12/2025

📅 6/12/2025 14:00

Sassuolo 2.65

X 3.25

Fiorentina 2.60

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Sassuolo x Fiorentina:

🔮 Fiorentina wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fiorentina, you can win up to $1300.00!

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The main points for the tip for Sassuolo x Fiorentina:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Sassuolo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $115.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Fiorentina in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-285.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Fiorentina, Sassuolo scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Sassuolo conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Fiorentina conceded at least 2 goal(s).

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

Lets analyze the match between Sassuolo and Fiorentina at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Sassuolos home ground. The home team has a decent performance in recent home games, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per game and conceding about 1.2 goals, with 2 wins and 2 losses in the last five home matches. Fiorentina struggles away, with an average of only 0.6 goals scored and about 1.8 goals conceded per away game.

The median odds indicate a balance between Sassuolos win (2.63) and Fiorentinas win (2.6), with a more expensive draw (3.26). Converting to normalized implied probabilities, we get approximately: Sassuolo win ~37%, draw ~30%, Fiorentina win ~33%. Considering recent team performances, especially Fiorentinas defensive fragility and Sassuolos home advantage at Mapei Stadium, my adjusted estimate would be: Sassuolo win ~40%, draw ~28%, Fiorentina win ~32%.

Calculating fair odds based on this analysis, we get values close to: 2.5 for Sassuolo to win, 3.57 for a draw, and 3.13 for Fiorentina to win.

The Bets Kenya model suggests a strong advantage for Fiorentina with predicted odds very low (~1.97), indicating a high probability of their victory — this doesnt align well with recent data or current team conditions.

📰 News: Sassuolo is missing striker Berardi, injured until the end of the year; however, they maintain good recent form before this serious injury in the last match against Como, which they lost heavily (0-3). Fiorentina is in a bad phase at the bottom of the league, with no recent away wins besides key injuries like Josko Gosens still unavailable; Džeko has asked for extra support from fans due to the tough situation.

📈 Positional Analysis: The poor league position weighs against Fiorentinas morale, which urgently needs points but faces a more balanced opponent playing at their usual stadium where they tend to be competitive despite recent difficulties.

Based on this, my suggested bet is to value the market “Sassuolo Win” or even “Sassuolo or Draw,” as I see value in the current odds above my fair calculations — especially since the model overestimates visiting team chances, ignoring factors like home advantage and key absences.

The expected value calculated for Sassuolos victory is positive (>5%), while bets on the visitor show a negative EV according to my calculations.
Therefore, I partially disagree with the strong indications from the Bets Kenya model that favors the visiting team too much.
Lets take advantage of this opportunity! ⚽🔥

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Analysis from Sassuolo x Fiorentina for the Italy Serie A – 6 of December

When the best bet on Sassuolo x Fiorentina is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1449132 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news about Sassuolo x Fiorentina

Sassuolo: Sassuolo is currently dealing with the loss of their star striker Domenico Berardi, who suffered a moderate grade injury to the right leg flexor muscle during the defeat to Como and, after further examinations, began a rehabilitation program that is expected to keep him out until the end of the year; the clubs concern over his absence led coach Roberto Grosso to consider veteran forward Alessandro Volpato as a possible replacement, while the team, which had a golden streak with ten points in four matches before the loss to Como, now faces Fiorentina in the next Serie A round on December 6, with a probable lineup in a 4-3-3 formation under Grossos management.

Fiorentina: Fiorentina, coached by Paolo Vanoli, entered the 13th round of Serie A on November 30, 2025, at the bottom of the league with only six points from 13 matches, tied with Verona and five points below the safety zone; after a 2-0 defeat to Atalanta in Bergamo, the team played in a 3-5-2 scheme with De Gea in goal, three defenders: Pongracic, Marì, and Ranieri, five midfielders: Dodò, Mandragora, Fagioli, Sohm, and Parisi, and the attacking duo of Piccoli and Moise Kean, while Dutch winger Josko Gosens, injured, remained unavailable, Lamptey returned to training but has not yet been cleared, and former striker Kouame was included after recovering from an anterior cruciate ligament injury; veteran Edin Džeko addressed fans in the away section after the defeat, urging fans to support the team more intensely in an attempt to break the bad streak.

Table analysis for the match between Sassuolo and Fiorentina

Sassuolo: Sassuolo is in 10th place with 17 points and has a delicate balance in the middle of the table. Although not threatened by relegation, it is also quite far from European competition spots, which reduces the expectation of fighting for something big in this final stretch. However, the team can use the match against Fiorentina to earn important points and definitively escape any risk, ensuring a smooth stay in Serie A.

Fiorentina: Fiorentina is in a very complicated situation, occupying 19th place with only 6 points, in the relegation zone. With this low score and proximity to the relegation zone, this game is crucial to try to earn points and seek at least a miracle to escape relegation. Every point will be crucial for Fiorentina to try to change its destiny in this competition.

Summary: The match is very important for Fiorentina, which is fighting to get out of the relegation zone. For Sassuolo, the game also has its importance to secure a peaceful stay in the middle of the table, although it does not have the same urgency as Fiorentina.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Sassuolo x Fiorentina

Should you bet on Sassuolo?

🔵 Sassuolo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.54% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.65. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $363.00;
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$417.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.8% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 230 times – profiting $517.50;
• And would have lost other 770 times – with a loss of -$770.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$252.50.

Should you bet on Fiorentina?

🔴 Fiorentina: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 55.66% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 560 times – having a profit of $896.00;
• And would lose other 440 times – having a loss of -$440.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$456.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Sassuolo x Fiorentina

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Sassuolo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sassuolo x Fiorentina

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Sassuolo, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Sassuolo.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sassuolo x Fiorentina

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.