Cremonese x Lecce Betting tips for December 7 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Cremonese x Lecce, Sunday, 7/12/2025

📅 7/12/2025 11:30

Cremonese 2.54

X 3.00

Lecce 3.00

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Cremonese x Lecce:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Cremonese x Lecce

Some important points for the tip for Cremonese x Lecce:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Cremonese in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Lecce in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $445.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Cremonese scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Cremonese conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Cremonese vs Lecce?

Lets analyze the match between Cremonese and Lecce at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremoneses home ground, which has a capacity of about 20,600 fans, ensuring the home advantage for them.

📈 Table analysis: Although the exact position data isnt detailed here, we know both teams are at crucial moments in Serie A. Cremonese aims to establish itself and avoid relegation with a still vulnerable defense (average of 1 goal conceded per home game), while Lecce is gaining confidence after recent wins and wants to solidify its position in the middle of the table.

Cremonese has a modest attack with an average of 1 goal per home game and concedes more goals than it scores (7 goals conceded in the last 5 home matches against only 4 scored). The team also faces more opponent shots (14) than it creates (8), indicating defensive fragility. Conversely, Lecce away has a similar scoring average (1) but concedes even more goals (2 per game), yet shows better balance in recent away matches with two recent wins.

📰 Team news: Cremonese is riding high after a convincing away win against Bologna, featuring the offensive duo Bonazzoli-Vardy as highlights. However, some key players are returning injured or not in full physical condition. Lecce arrives motivated after a win over Torino and has a strong midfield led by Medon Berisha; however, their main striker Simeone is still recovering.

Fair odds calculation:

• Based on median odds: home = 2.55 → prob ≈0.392; draw =3 → prob ≈0.333; away=2.93 → prob ≈0.341;
• Sum of implied probabilities: 0.392+0.333+0.341=1.066;
• Normalized: home_pred_gpt=0.368; draw_pred_gpt=0.313; away_pred_gpt=0.320;

Qualitative analysis: Considering the defensive fragility of both sides and Lecces better recent away form, my adjusted estimate gives a slight edge to the visitor or a draw — roughly home ~35%, draw ~32%, away ~33%. This reflects balance but a slight tactical superiority of Lecce due to recent form and partial absence of Cremoneses starters.

Adjusted fair odds calculation:

• home_pred_odds_gpt ≈ 2.85
• draw_pred_odds_gpt ≈ 3.13
• away_pred_odds_gpt ≈ 3.03

Expected value analysis using the final odds:

• Cremonese: EV = ((2.4 / 2.85) -1)*100 = -15%
• Draw effect: EV = ((3.1 / 3.13)-1)*100 = -1%
• Lecce: EV = ((3.2 / 3.03)-1)*100 = +5%

Only betting on Lecces victory shows a positive expected value above the +5% minimum recommended for a realistic value bet.

The Bets Kenya model analysis indicates a higher chance for the visitors win (+14% EV), which I fully agree with because the current moment favors the away team even when playing away — especially considering partial injuries in the home team and Lecces recent offensive performance.

Final tip 🎯 : Bet on Lecces victory, as the balanced statistics favoring the visitor combined with positive news about their current form create a favorable scenario for surprises against a defensively vulnerable Cremonese even playing at their traditional stadium.
Expected value calculated is around +5%, showing a good opportunity!

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Analysis from Cremonese x Lecce for the Italy Serie A – 7 of December

When the best bet on Cremonese x Lecce is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1449456 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news about Cremonese x Lecce

Cremonese: Cremonese has been in a strong phase in Serie A under coach Davide Nicola, recently securing an away victory by 3-1 against Bologna on December 1, 2025, with goals from Martin Payeró, Jamie Vardy, and a penalty converted by Riccardo Orsolini, the English forward celebrating enthusiastically after his goal; the club also highlighted the growing partnership between Federico Bonazzoli and Vardy as the preferred attacking duo in their 3-5-2 system, while recent team updates indicate that defenders Pezzella and midfielder Grassi have returned from injury but are not yet in full shape for 90 minutes, and the team is preparing to face Bologna again soon, lining up Audero in goal behind a back line of three composed of Terracciano, Baschirotto, and Bianchetti, maintaining the Bonazzoli-Vardy offensive partnership as the focus of their attack.

Lecce: Lecce has been gaining momentum in Serie A, securing a 2-1 home victory against Torino on November 30, 2025, thanks to goals from Coulibaly, Banda, and a late consolation goal by Che Adams, which placed them in a more comfortable position in the mid-table; coach Eusebio Di Francesco highlighted the depth of their midfield, with Medon Berisha emerging as a key organizer after providing two assists in the win against Torino and now playing behind striker Nikola Stulic, while the midfield duo formed by Coulibaly and Ramadani adds balance and defensive solidity; the team will face crucial matches against Cremonese away on Sunday and a home clash against Pisa on Friday, December 12, and remains hopeful about the return of striker Giovanni Simeone, who is progressing in individual rehabilitation sessions after his injury, although he has not yet returned to full team training.

Table analysis for the match between Cremonese x Lecce

Cremonese: Cremonese is currently in 11th place with 17 points, far from both the European competition qualification zone and the relegation zone. With a comfortable distance from teams fighting to avoid relegation and little chance of reaching international competitions, this match is likely to have a moderate impact on them. The main focus may be to maintain their position and gather points to secure Serie A permanence, but without intense pressure for immediate results.

Lecce: Lecce is in 14th place with 13 points, slightly closer to the relegation zone than to the top of the table. This match is important for Lecce because a victory could increase the gap from the bottom of the table, providing more peace of mind for the rest of the season. Conversely, a negative result could bring more pressure and make the team more vulnerable to entering the risk zone.

Summary: The game is moderately important for both teams, especially for Lecce which seeks a greater distance from the relegation zone, while Cremonese aims for stability in the standings. It is not a decisive match for titles or European qualification, but it certainly earns points to avoid bigger problems for the rest of the season.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Cremonese x Lecce

Should you bet on Cremonese?

🔵 Cremonese: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 41.51% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.54. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 420 times – having a profit of $646.80;
• And would lose other 580 times – having a loss of -$580.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$66.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 33.53%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 340 times – profiting $680.00;
• And would lose other 660 times – losing -$660.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$20.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is betting on Lecce worth it?

🔴 Lecce: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.96% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 250 times – profiting $500.00;
• And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$250.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Cremonese x Lecce

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Cremonese
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cremonese x Lecce

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Cremonese and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Cremonese.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Cremonese.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cremonese x Lecce

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.