Cagliari x Roma Betting tips for December 7 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Cagliari x Roma, Sunday, 7/12/2025

📅 7/12/2025 14:00

Cagliari 5.16

X 3.50

Roma 1.70

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Cagliari x Roma:

🔮 Roma wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Roma, you can win up to $850.00!

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The main points for the tip for Cagliari x Roma:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Cagliari in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-345.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $248.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Cagliari conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for Cagliari vs Roma:

Lets analyze the match between Cagliari and Roma at the Unipol Domus stadium, home of Cagliari. Based on recent statistics, Cagliari has conceded more goals than they have scored at home (average of 2 goals scored and 2 conceded per game), with a weak performance in recent Serie A matches (only 1 win in 5 home games). Roma, on the other hand, shows much better away stats, averaging 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded, along with a solid streak of 4 wins in their last 5 away matches.

The median odds indicate a clear favoritism for Roma (1.7), while Cagliari is seen as an underdog (5.12) and the draw is average (3.5). Converting the median odds into implied probabilities gives approximately: Cagliari win ~17%, draw ~29%, Roma win ~54%. Considering the offensive/defensive stats of the teams, this distribution makes sense: Roma is favored due to superior quality and better recent form.

However, our internal model suggests very high odds for Cagliari (~14.8), indicating a very low probability of their victory (~6.7%), while slightly underestimating the chance of a draw (~19%) and overestimating Romas win (~73%). This seems exaggerated given that even playing against a strong team like Roma at their stadium, Cagliari can leverage their home factor — although not dominant — especially with their goalkeeper Elia Caprile in good form.

📈 In the Serie A table, Roma is in fourth place with good points accumulated (27 points), aiming to establish themselves among the leaders; Cagliari is much lower with only 11 points so far. This difference reinforces Romas favoritism but also shows they need to stay focused to avoid stumbling against weaker or mid-tier teams like Cagliari.

📰 Recent news: Young goalkeeper Caprile has been a standout for Cagliari, attracting interest from major European clubs; this could be crucial to hold off strong attacks like Romas in this match. On the other hand, Paulo Dybala is still recovering from injury, slightly reducing their main offensive strength; however, Artem Dovbyk remains a starter, providing some offensive production for Roma.

Analyzing the expected value of bets based on final odds versus my fair estimates adjusted for the above information:
– Cagliari win: negative EV due to high final odds but low realistic probability
– Draw: EV close to zero
– Roma win: moderate positive EV (~10%+), as the final low odds reflect their superiority well

My recommendation: I partially agree with the Bets Kenya model to find value in betting on Roma, but I think it overestimates their chances of an easy win — I expect a competitive match where betting only on them is safe but not highly profitable.
Avoid betting on Cagliari, as despite the expected good defenses from goalkeeper Caprile, they have limited recent offensive capacity.
The draw might be interesting only if the odds increase significantly before the match.

In summary: a safe bet is on Romas victory, taking advantage of their better overall stats and comfortable position in the table 📊⚽️🔥!

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Analysis from Cagliari x Roma for the Italy Serie A – 7 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Cagliari x Roma right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1449456 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on Cagliari x Roma

Cagliari: The most talked-about story in Cagliari this week revolves around young goalkeeper Elia Caprile, who after being bought back from Napoli for €8 million in January 2025, has become a hot target for clubs like Juventus, Inter, and several Premier League teams, thanks to his strong performances and a long-term contract until 2029; Napoli coach Antonio Conte praised his performance in the recent Coppa Italia match, where Cagliari was eliminated after a penalty shootout 10-9. The club will face Roma on December 7, 2025, with coach Diego Pisacane, likely using a 3-5-2 formation that will keep Caprile in goal, a defensive line with Zappa, Rodriguez, and Luperto, midfielders Di Pardo, Liteta, Prati, Cavuoti, and Idrissi, and an attack formed by Kilicsoy and Pavoletti, while the squad deals with the absences of Moumbagna (returning in the 15th round) and Collocolo (returning in the 18th round).

Roma: AS Roma is currently in fourth place in Serie A 2025/26, but their attack has been criticized for not meeting Champions League standards, despite a recent streak of five goals against Cremonese and Midtjylland; Paulo Dybala is recovering from a left thigh injury and is expected to participate in the next Europa League match against Cagliari, while Artem Dovbyk remains a starter in attack, and the teams overall goal production remains below the level needed for a top-two finish; coach José Mourinho (often called “Gasp”) emphasizes a balanced, unbiased style and highlighted the importance of integrating young talents, with former youth academy director Alberto De Rossi planning to create a U-23 team to give more opportunities to emerging players; off the field, a group of Roma ultras fans was arrested in Nice after a disturbance, resulting in several punishments and legal proceedings.

Italy Serie A table analysis for Cagliari x Roma

Cagliari: Cagliari is in 15th place with 11 points and a negative goal difference (-6). The team is close to the relegation zone, with teams below in the table, such as Genoa and Parma, also with 11 points but worse goal differences, and Pisa with 10 points in the relegation zone. This makes the match against Roma vital for Cagliari, which needs to earn points to move away from the dangerous zone and avoid relegation. Every point is crucial, so the game is of high importance for Cagliari.

Roma: Roma is in 4th place with 27 points, currently securing a direct spot for the Champions League. Although well placed among the leaders, the team lost three positions in the last round and has points close to Inter Milan (27 points) and Napoli (28 points). Therefore, the match is important to maintain or improve their position in the race for European spots, especially to stay within the top four and keep the title dream alive. The game is very important for Roma to stay strong at the top of the table.

Summary: The match is important for both teams but for different reasons: Cagliari fights against relegation and urgently needs points, while Roma seeks to secure their position in the Champions League qualification zone. A decisive game that can significantly impact the standings at the top and bottom of the table! ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Cagliari x Roma

Is it worth betting on Cagliari?

🔵 Cagliari: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 6.29% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.16. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 60 times – profiting $249.60;
• And would have lost other 940 times – with a loss of -$940.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$690.40.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.09% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 180 times – this would give you a profit of $450.00
• And would lose other 820 times – losing -$820.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$370.00.

Is betting on Roma worth it?

🔴 Roma: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 75.62% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 760 times – profiting $532.00;
• And would have lost other 240 times – with a loss of -$240.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$292.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Cagliari x Roma

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Cagliari
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cagliari x Roma

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +1.0 Cagliari and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.75 Cagliari.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Roma.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cagliari x Roma

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.