Benfica x Napoli Betting tips for December 10 in UEFA Champions League

Our betting tip for Benfica x Napoli, Wednesday, 10/12/2025

📅 10/12/2025 20:00

Benfica 2.25

X 3.32

Napoli 3.08

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Benfica x Napoli:

🔮 Napoli wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Napoli, you can win up to $1540.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for Benfica x Napoli:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Benfica in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-264.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-45.0.
👉 In the last 3 Napoli matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Benfica conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Benfica vs Napoli?

⚽ The match between Benfica and Napoli promises to be a balanced duel, but with a slight advantage for the home team, which plays at Estádio da Luz, their usual stadium, with a great average of goals scored (2 per game at home) and good ball possession (56%). Benfica remains undefeated at home in the national season, reinforcing their strength playing in front of their fans. Napoli has an efficient away attack (1 goal per game), but concedes more goals defensively (2 per game). The median odds indicate a slight preference for Benfica (2.25) against 3.08 for Napoli.

📈 In the national league table, both teams are very well positioned: Benfica is third in the Portuguese Primeira Liga with 29 points and undefeated at home; Napoli leads the Italian Serie A tied in points with Milan. This situation shows that both have high motivation to win the Champions League match to maintain their good form.

📰 Recent news show that coach José Mourinho is confident in Benficas squad despite some errors, while Napoli is on a winning streak after important victories in Serie A and has key players like David Neres. Napolis goalkeeper Alex Gilmour is recovering from surgery, which could impact the Neapolitan defense.

After analyzing the offensive/defensive statistics of the teams combined with the implicit probabilities of the odds adjusted for the house margin, I estimate the approximate fair probabilities: Benfica win ~40%, draw ~30%, Napoli win ~30%. This results in fair odds close to 2.5 for Benfica victory, 3.3 for draw, and 3.3 for Napoli victory.

By comparing the final odds offered by the bookmakers with my fair estimates, I see a positive expected value only in betting on Napoli, as the bookmakers pay about 3.3 against an estimated true probability of less than (~30%), generating a positive EV above 20%. Bets on a draw or Benfica win show a negative EV according to my calculations.

My recommendation: bet on Napoli, because despite Benficas strong home advantage and good current form nationally, I see greater value in the odds offered to the visitor, also considering possible important defensive absences in the Italian team.

Suggested bet by the Bets Kenya model:

• Bet: Away win (Napoli)
• Expected value calculated by the model: +22%

Final analysis:

I fully agree with the models suggestion! I believe there is value in betting on Napolis away success in this balanced but open match due to the offensive quality of both sides and recent factors like important injuries to the visitors.
Lets go! 🚀⚽

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Analysis from Benfica x Napoli for the UEFA Champions League – 10 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Benfica x Napoli right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1450740 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news about Benfica x Napoli

Benfica: Benfica is currently third in the Primeira Liga 2025-26 after 13 matches, with eight wins and five draws, scoring 26 goals and conceding eight, totaling 29 points. The team remains undefeated at home throughout the season (three wins and three draws), also maintaining an overall unbeaten streak in the league; the most recent highlight was the 1-1 draw in the Lisbon derby against Sporting CP on December 5, where Benfica equalized after being at a disadvantage due to a defensive mistake by Enzo Barrenechea, preserving their unbeaten run (8 wins, 5 draws). Coach José Mourinho defended young left-back Samuel Dahl after his mistake in the Champions League defeat to Bayer Leverkusen and highlighted that the morale-boosting victory against Ajax in the Champions League group stage helped the squad regain confidence as they continue fighting for the title behind leaders FC Porto.

Napoli: Napoli has been experiencing a successful period at the end of 2025, regaining the Serie A lead after a 3-1 victory over Atalanta, where David Neres scored twice and provided an assist, putting the club back at the top of the table with 28 points, tied with AC Milan but ahead on goal difference. The day before, the team secured a dramatic 2-1 win against Juventus at Diego Armando Maradona Stadium, highlighted by Rasmus Højlund’s first goals in 63 days, scoring a decisive double. Coach Antonio Conte celebrated the “Squadra dell’anno” award at the Sports Awards ceremony. Off the field, goalkeeper Alex Gilmour underwent surgery and is expected to return soon, while the team prepares for the Coppa Italia match against Cagliari on December 3, after recently winning the U-20 Cup over Cesena.

Table analysis for the game between Benfica and Napoli

No table analysis was provided for this match.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Benfica x Napoli

Is betting on Benfica worth it?

🔵 Benfica: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 37.89% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 380 times – profiting $475.00;
• And would lose other 620 times – losing -$620.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$145.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.31%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.32. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 240 times – profiting $556.80;
• And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$203.20.

Should you bet on Napoli?

🔴 Napoli: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 37.8% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.08. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 380 times – this would give you a profit of $790.40
• And would have lost other 620 times – with a loss of -$620.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$170.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Benfica x Napoli

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Benfica
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Benfica x Napoli

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Benfica, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Benfica.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Napoli.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Benfica x Napoli

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.