Botafogo x Sao Paulo Betting tips for April 16 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Botafogo x Sao Paulo, Wednesday, 16/4/2025

📅 16/4/2025 21:30

Botafogo 1.90

X 3.48

Sao Paulo 3.82

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Botafogo x Sao Paulo:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Botafogo x Sao Paulo

Some important points for the tip for Botafogo x Sao Paulo: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Botafogo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-91.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Sao Paulo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $40.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Botafogo scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Sao Paulo matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Botafogo is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 Botafogo has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Sao Paulo playing at home.

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Analysis from Botafogo x Sao Paulo for the Brazil Serie A – 16 of April

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Botafogo and Sao Paulo.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1305181 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Botafogo x Sao Paulo

Is it worth betting on Botafogo?

🔵 Botafogo: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 55.77% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.90. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 560 times – having a profit of $504.00;
• And would have lost other 440 times – with a loss of -$440.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$64.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 21.82% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.48. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $545.60;
• And would have lost other 780 times – with a loss of -$780.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$234.40.

Is it worth betting on Sao Paulo?

🔴 Sao Paulo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 22.41%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.82. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 220 times – profiting $620.40;
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$159.60. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Handicaps analysis for the match Botafogo x Sao Paulo

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Botafogo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Botafogo x Sao Paulo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Botafogo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Botafogo.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Sao Paulo.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Botafogo x Sao Paulo

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.