Fluminense x Mirassol Betting tips for November 6 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Fluminense x Mirassol, Thursday, 6/11/2025

📅 6/11/2025 22:30

Fluminense 1.90

X 3.30

Mirassol 4.15

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Fluminense x Mirassol:

🔮 Fluminense wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fluminense, you can win up to $950.00!

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The main points for the tip for Fluminense x Mirassol:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Fluminense in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $394.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Mirassol in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $105.0.
👉 Fluminense did not concede a goal in the last 5 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Fluminense scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Fluminense matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Mirassol conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Mirassol is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 away matches, it had at least 63.00% of possession.
👉 Fluminense is good playing home: it has 5 wins in a row in its last matches at home.

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Analysis from Fluminense x Mirassol for the Brazil Serie A – 6 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Fluminense and Mirassol.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1433772 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news about Fluminense x Mirassol

Fluminense: The Fluminense team lost 2-0 to Ceará at Arena Castelão on November 2, 2025, with goals from Galeano and Pedro Raul, dropping to 7th place in the Brasileirão with 47 points, just one point behind Botafogo. The defeat sparked criticism of Argentine coach Zubeldía, who received messages of support from fans, and highlighted offensive issues – the forwards have gone a month without scoring – as well as defensive fragility, while the club deals with absences of Thiago Silva and Cano, suspension of Bernal and Lucho Acosta, and the possibility of Nonato returning to midfield, with Hércules being evaluated for the starting lineup. In upcoming matches, the Tricolor will start a decisive sequence against G-4 teams, trying to reverse the poor away form, and awaits CBF’s decision on the championship schedule to set the club’s presidential election, scheduled for mid-November.

Mirassol: Mirassol is having a historic season in the 2025 Serie A, occupying fourth place with 55 points and maintaining an undefeated home streak after 31 rounds, being one of the few clubs that have not lost as hosts. The team won four consecutive matches – Fluminense (2-1), Internacional (3-1), São Paulo (3-0), and Sport (2-1) – and opened a 13-point lead over the Libertadores zone, with coach Rafael Guanaes, in charge since March, seen as the main responsible for the success, combining promising youth and experienced players. The club also announced plans to form a women’s team starting in 2026, a mandatory requirement for Libertadores participation, and announced that only 1,500 tickets remain for the match against Palmeiras, scheduled for Sunday at 8:30 pm. In the last round, Mirassol drew 0-0 with Botafogo at José Maria de Campos Maia stadium, ending their attacking streak at Maião, but still showing strength in the championship and competing directly for a Libertadores 2026 spot.

The latest Twitter/X gossip about Fluminense vs Mirassol

🛡️ Physical condition and lineup of Fluminense: Midfielder Ganso is in transition to return, but is expected to play only after the international break, meaning he wont be available for the match against Mirassol. The absence of an experienced midfielder controlling the ball can impact Fluminenses offensive balance and playmaking. Additionally, there are no reports of significant absences in defense or attack indicating major changes in the originally expected starting lineup.

⚡ Offensive strength and set-piece weapon: Both Fluminense and Mirassol have left-backs who stand out for goals from free kicks — Renê on Fluminense and Reinaldo on Mirassol. This characteristic increases the importance of set pieces as clear goal-scoring opportunities for both teams and could influence game dynamics, especially considering the rare finishing level of both full-backs in the national football scene.

📊 Tactical and psychological importance of the stadium and fans: Maracanã, the venue for the game, holds strong symbolic value for Fluminense, which recently celebrated with an emotional gesture the anniversary of their Libertadores title. The intense atmosphere and fan motivation, combined with the fact that Flu needs 10 out of the 12 points available in the next home games to stay competitive for Libertadores, point to a highly motivated team defending their home advantage and aiming to maintain their partial undefeated streak. The home advantage weighs heavily due to these psychological factors.

⏳ Context of the standings and importance of the match: The match is crucial for Fluminense to maintain the points average needed for the G-7 and, consequently, secure a direct spot for the 2026 Libertadores. Mirassol, despite being less prominent nationally, is exceeding expectations and is working to avoid relegation with a cohesive and effective team, undefeated at home and having earned some crucial points against big teams.

⚖️ Referee and external aspects: Both clubs are part of the CBF discussion group working on improving refereeing, which doesnt have an immediate practical impact but shows institutional involvement in seeking quality and transparency, minimizing risks of controversial decisions — an indirect factor affecting game predictability.

⚔️ Playing style and tactical challenges: Fluminense, traditionally, seeks control of the game but has shown difficulties integrating young players from the youth academy, which may indicate less depth in the squad for quick adaptations. Mirassol, which creates many chances from set pieces and has experienced finishers, can exploit potential flaws in the Fluminense system through rehearsed plays and shots from outside the area, making the match more open and with potential goals from set pieces.

📅 Fixture and pressure from the rest of the championship: Fluminense will face a tough schedule after this game, with Flamengo, Palmeiras, and São Paulo, which puts pressure on them to gather points now at home. Mirassol, coming from a less demanding calendar and aiming to establish itself in Série A, should propose a competitive game to avoid losing ground in the standings.

💰 Resources and structure considerations: Mirassol has a more modest payroll and infrastructure compared to a giant like Fluminense, but it has demonstrated resilience and tactical organization, common features in teams that play without excessive pressure and with daring.

🔥 Extra motivation and recent achievements: The recent Libertadores triumph of Fluminense can boost team morale and fan support, while Mirassol is experiencing a period of ascent, increasing digital engagement and recognition, which could motivate them to cause an upset away from home.

These facts connect to form a tactical and psychological scenario quite defined for this Brasileirão clash. Gansos absence slightly reduces Fluminenses creative power, which will rely on home advantage and motivation stemming from pressure to secure a Libertadores spot. On the other hand, Mirassol presents a practical and potentially aggressive approach from set pieces, with left-backs specialized in free kicks. This combination points to a game where set pieces will have strategic importance greater than usual, possibly increasing opportunities in static situations for both sides.

From a betting perspective, Fluminenses pressure to get a good result playing at Maracanã, especially to accumulate important points, suggests the home team will seek control and a positive result at any cost, which could impact markets related to possession and corners. The importance of set pieces, with two specialized full-backs, may increase the appeal of markets like goals from direct free kicks and corner kicks creating goal opportunities. The technical balance and motivation of Mirassol indicate a real possibility for both teams to score, setting a scenario where markets for “Both Teams to Score” and “Goals from Set Pieces” could be favored, as the game is expected to be open in pursuit of an advantage and structured chance creation via fouls and corners.

Table analysis for the game between Fluminense and Mirassol

Fluminense: Fluminense is currently in 7th place with 47 points, aiming for a spot in the Copa Sudamericana. The gap to teams in the Libertadores qualification zone is significant (9 points behind Mirassol, which is in the G-4), but there is still a chance to climb the table in the final rounds. This match is important to keep the chance of reaching better positions and securing a spot in international competitions, especially since the round is close to the end of the championship and every point counts a lot at this moment. Therefore, Fluminense should approach the game with full focus to avoid losing ground.

Mirassol: Mirassol holds a great 4th place with 56 points and is already qualified for the Copa Libertadores, one of the clubs main goals this season. Despite the advantage in points, maintaining the position or even reaching higher spots is important to define potential future matchups and prestige. This match is decisive to ensure staying in the G-4 and avoid any threat of falling in the standings, especially since the fight for the title and qualification is quite competitive at this stage of the competition.

Summary: This game is important for both teams. For Mirassol, it is essential to secure maintenance in the direct qualification zone for the Copa Libertadores, while for Fluminense, it is a valuable chance to get closer to the international competition qualification zone. A decisive confrontation that promises excitement! ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Fluminense x Mirassol

Is it worth betting on Fluminense?

🔵 Fluminense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 65.0% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 650 times – having a profit of $585.00;
• And would lose other 350 times – having a loss of -$350.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$235.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 23.92%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 240 times – having a profit of $552.00;
• And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$208.00.

Is betting on Mirassol worth it?

🔴 Mirassol: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 11.09% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.15. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 110 times – profiting $346.50;
• And would lose other 890 times – having a loss of -$890.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$543.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Fluminense x Mirassol

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Fluminense
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Fluminense x Mirassol

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Fluminense and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Fluminense.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Fluminense x Mirassol

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.