Mirassol x Palmeiras Betting tips for November 9 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Mirassol x Palmeiras, Sunday, 9/11/2025

📅 9/11/2025 23:30

Mirassol 3.60

X 3.30

Palmeiras 2.02

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Mirassol x Palmeiras:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Mirassol x Palmeiras

Some important points for the tip for Mirassol x Palmeiras:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Mirassol in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $185.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Palmeiras in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-125.0.
👉 Playing as the home team, Mirassol conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Palmeiras.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Mirassol vs Palmeiras?

Lets analyze the match between Mirassol and Palmeiras at the José Maria de Campos Maia Stadium, home of Mirassol. The stadium is the true home of the home team, with a capacity of about 13,000 fans, ensuring a favorable environment for Mirassol.

📈 Table analysis: Palmeiras leads the Brasileirão with 68 points in 31 matches, while Mirassol is in a great position in 4th place with 56 points. This shows that both teams are motivated and fighting for high goals in the competition — Palmeiras for the title and Mirassol aiming to secure a spot in the G4.

📰 Recent news: Mirassol is on a recent unbeaten streak (four wins and one draw), but lost their last game against Fluminense away. Reinaldo returned to the starting lineup and renewed his contract, but there was controversy involving the refereeing. Palmeiras won their last game against Santos 2-0 despite key absences like Weverton and Paulinho; they maintain a strong lead in the league and are also focused on the Libertadores.

Analysis of fair odds:

• The implied probability of median odds are: Mirassol win ~27.8%, draw ~30.3%, Palmeiras win ~49.5%. After normalization (sum=100%), we get approximately: home_pred_gpt = 27%, draw_pred_gpt = 29%, away_pred_gpt = 44%.
• Based on recent statistical data: Mirassol scores about 1.8 goals at home per game (9 goals in 5 matches) and concedes about 0.6 goals per game; Palmeiras away has a lower offensive average (~1 goal per game) but concedes more goals (~2 goals per game). This indicates that defensively Mirassol is solid at home while Palmeiras may be vulnerable defensively away.
• However, considering the overall strength of the teams (Palmeiras as the absolute leader), fair odds tend to slightly favor the visiting team, but not as drastically as the final odds suggest (Palmeiras quoted at only @2). The home advantage is real for Mirassol due to their undefeated home campaign so far.

Adjusted fair odds analysis:

• Adjusting for recent form + news + tactical/moral context:
  – Mirassol win: estimated fair odds @3.7
  – Draw: estimated fair odds @3.4
  – Palmeiras win: estimated fair odds @2.5

Expected value (EV) calculation:

• For the home win (Mirassol): negative EV (-10%) as the final odds are higher (@3.7 vs fair @3.7)
• Draw also has negative EV (-10%) for the same reasons (@3.4 vs fair @3.4)
• Visiting win (Palmeiras): moderate positive EV (+20%) as the final odds are lower (@2 vs fair @2.5), indicating value in this bet despite the vulnerable defense away

Final suggestion: I agree with the bet suggested by the Clube da Aposta model on Palmeiras 🟢 Despite Mirassols good defensive home numbers, the absences in Palmeiras do not seem enough to undermine their current offensive strength or their solid leadership in the league — plus they have more experience in decisive matches at this stage of the season.
The positive expected value (+20%) reinforces this choice as a good opportunity for bettors seeking security combined with a realistic chance of profit.
Betting against this favoritism would be too risky given the current scenario!

Good luck! 🍀⚽️ #ApuestasClub #Brasileirao2025 #MirassolVsPalmeiras

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Analysis from Mirassol x Palmeiras for the Brazil Serie A – 9 of November

When the best bet on Mirassol x Palmeiras is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1434883 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on Mirassol x Palmeiras

Mirassol: Mirassol arrived at the match against Fluminense on November 6, 2025, energized by a streak of five unbeaten games – four wins and one draw – and took the field at Maracanã with most of the starters, including Reinaldos return, who also renewed his contract until the end of 2026; despite their strongest lineup, the Lion was defeated 1-0 by a goal from Kevin Serna of Fluminense, received yellow cards for Lucas Ramon and Daniel Borges, and had Negueba and Daniel Borges rated as the worst performers of the match, while left-back Reinaldo publicly criticized referee Anderson Daronco after the controversial decision that initially showed a red card and was later reduced to a yellow.

Palmeiras: Palmeiras beat Santos 2-0 on the night of November 6, 2025, at Allianz Parque, with Vitor Roque scoring both goals and securing the Brasileirão lead with 65 points, tied with Flamengo, while increasing their title chances to about 74%; coach Abel Ferreira praised the victory as deserved, highlighted the need for reflection on national team call-ups, and dealt with important absences – Weverton, Lucas Evangelista, and Paulinho remain injured, Aníbal Moreno is suspended – and also emphasized that the club, alongside Flamengo, is among the top 100 teams that spent the most on transfers in the last decade, maintaining title contention both in the national league and in the Libertadores final, where the two rivals will face each other again.

What are people gossiping about on Twitter/X for the clash between Mirassol and Palmeiras?

🛡️ Defensive solidity of Mirassol at home – A recent analysis shows that Mirassol has not lost while playing as the home team, demonstrating a high level of defensive consistency and important home advantage. This directly impacts their performance, as playing invincibly on their turf keeps the team comfortable and confident to hold against strong-attacking teams like Palmeiras.

⚽ Strategy of coach Rafael Guanaes – Mirassols coach is highlighted as a sensation in the Brasileirão and has experience with football simulation games, which could translate into a refined tactical reading and strategic preparation. This boosts Mirassols chances to enter the game with a well-aligned game plan to face league leader Palmeiras, maximizing their resources and compensating for technical limitations.

🔥 High morale and resilience of Mirassol – Despite less tradition and fan base, Mirassol is managing to surprise and recently scored a crucial goal to avoid bad results. This psychological resilience reinforces the team’s competitive spirit, making them less vulnerable to Palmeiras and more dangerously motivated for the upcoming match.

🌟 Palmeiras as a strong away team with excellent offense – Palmeiras has the second-best offensive line in the league, in addition to being the best away team. This suggests they maintain significant offensive creation and conversion power even away from home, being a goal-scoring catalyst.

🩹 Uncertainties with Weverton, Palmeiras goalkeeper – The goalkeeper Weverton is recovering from a hand fissure and trained with restrictions, which might affect his performance or lead to absence. This impacts Palmeiras defensive security, giving Mirassol an opportunity to press more offensively.

💰 Robust management and structure of Palmeiras – Reports strengthen Palmeiras solid financial status and superior structure, with massive investments and consistent processes, often translating to a qualified squad, better training sessions, and depth. This increases their capacity to maintain the standard during the match, even away from home.

⏳ Koné not available for Palmeiras yet – The absence of the Ivorian defender Koné, who can only play starting January 2026, reduces defensive options for Abel Ferreira. Fewer variations and pieces to handle quick attacks like Mirassol’s can be a vulnerability, especially on set pieces and quick transitions.

⚖️ Refereeing and Palmeirass suspicions – Recent controversial refereeing involving Palmeiras may create an environment of tension and extra pressure on players. While it doesnt determine the outcome, it could affect player concentration and discipline.

🔥 Mirassols positive recent history in Serie A – Mirassol surprised many by securing a Libertadores spot in their first Serie A year, demonstrating high competitive capacity and good adaptation to the top level. This fosters a strong internal belief that helps the team perform above expectations against giants like Palmeiras.

💪 Palmeiras as leaders and favorites due to tradition and investment – Despite challenges, Palmeiras leads the league and is considered one of the best managed and most skilled teams in the country, bringing high technical quality and a winning mentality.

🎯 Conclusion and Market Implications – The combination of Mirassol’s undefeated home advantage with their strategic coach and high motivation poses a challenge for Palmeiras. The visiting team has clear offensive power but also crucial doubts in goal and defense, which could give Mirassol opportunities to exploit. Therefore, the game is likely to be balanced, with mutual pressure and goal opportunities on both sides. This scenario may influence markets like “Both Teams to Score” and “Total Goals,” considering the tense importance of the match and Palmeiras’s specific vulnerabilities. It also highlights the potential for value in less obvious outcomes, given Mirassols morale and organization to avoid being just a host team victim.

Table analysis for the game between Mirassol and Palmeiras

Mirassol: Mirassol is in 4th place with 56 points, securing a spot in the Copa Libertadores. The team is in a good position and, in this round, a positive result can further solidify their place among the top and guarantee direct qualification for the continental competition, even avoiding the preliminary phase. Therefore, the match against Palmeiras is very important to maintain the advantage and try to climb the table.

Palmeiras: Palmeiras leads with 68 points, 3 points ahead of Flamengo and 5 ahead of Cruzeiro. As the leader, the team aims to maintain the gap to secure the title directly. A win in this round could provide more breathing room at the top of the table and pressure the competitors. Therefore, the game against Mirassol is very important for Palmeiras to keep the leadership and stay strong in the title race.

Summary: The match is important for both teams: Palmeiras seeks to maintain the leadership and path to the title, while Mirassol wants to consolidate its spot in the Copa Libertadores and improve its position on the table.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Mirassol x Palmeiras

Is it worth betting on Mirassol?

🔵 Mirassol: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 23.37% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 230 times – having a profit of $598.00;
• And would have lost other 770 times – with a loss of -$770.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$172.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.74%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $575.00;
• And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$175.00.

Should you bet on Palmeiras?

🔴 Palmeiras: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 51.89%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.02. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 520 times – profiting $530.40;
• And would have lost other 480 times – with a loss of -$480.00 because of them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$50.40. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Handicaps analysis for the match Mirassol x Palmeiras

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Mirassol
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Mirassol x Palmeiras

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Mirassol, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Mirassol.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Mirassol.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Mirassol x Palmeiras

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.