Sport Recife x Bragantino Betting tips for April 16 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Sport Recife x Bragantino, Wednesday, 16/4/2025

📅 16/4/2025 22:00

Sport Recife 2.30

X 3.15

Bragantino 3.20

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Sport Recife x Bragantino:

🔮 Sport Recife wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Sport Recife, you can win up to $1150.00!

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The main points for the tip for Sport Recife x Bragantino: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Sport Recife in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-201.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Bragantino in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-260.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Sport Recife conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Bragantino conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Sport Recife has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Bragantino playing at home. 👉 It is not a good time for Sport Recife as home team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last home matches.

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Analysis from Sport Recife x Bragantino for the Brazil Serie A – 16 of April

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Sport Recife and Bragantino.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1305181 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Sport Recife x Bragantino

Is betting on Sport Recife worth it?

🔵 Sport Recife: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 62.79% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 630 times – having a profit of $819.00;
• And would lose other 370 times – having a loss of -$370.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$449.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 19.44% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.15. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – profiting $408.50;
• And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$401.50.

Is betting on Bragantino worth it?

🔴 Bragantino: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 17.77% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 180 times – having a profit of $396.00;
• And would lose other 820 times – having a loss of -$820.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$424.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Sport Recife x Bragantino

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Sport Recife
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sport Recife x Bragantino

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Sport Recife, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Sport Recife.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sport Recife x Bragantino

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.