Sport Recife x Gremio Betting tips for December 7 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Sport Recife x Gremio, Sunday, 7/12/2025

📅 7/12/2025 19:00

Sport Recife 3.42

X 3.64

Gremio 1.92

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Sport Recife x Gremio:

🔮 Sport Recife wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Sport Recife, you can win up to $1710.00!

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The main points for the tip for Sport Recife x Gremio:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Sport Recife in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Gremio in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Sport Recife scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Sport Recife x Gremio, with Sport Recife as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 Sport Recife matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Sport Recife conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Gremio conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Sport Recife has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Gremio playing at home.
👉 It is not a good time for Sport Recife as home team: it comes from 5 losses in a row in its last home matches.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Sport Recife vs Gremio:

Lets analyze the match between Sport Recife and Grêmio at Ilha do Retiro stadium, valid for the Brasileirão Série A. Sport Recife is going through a tough time, with a streak of 5 home losses in recent games, scoring an average of only 1 goal per game and conceding about 3 goals per match. Additionally, the team has low ball possession (41%) and suffers more shots than it creates (18 against 10). On the other hand, Grêmio is also not in its best away form, but shows a slightly better performance this season with higher averages in goals scored and conceded.

📰 News indicate that Sport is experiencing a turbulent administrative and technical phase, with salary delays being resolved now and internal political instability. This could negatively affect the teams motivation for this match. Meanwhile, Grêmio benefits from greater technical stability under the coordination of the experienced Luiz Felipe Scolari and strong support from the fans even when playing away.

📈 In the league table, although exact data has not been detailed here, we know that Sport is in a delicate situation while Grêmio occupies a more comfortable mid-table position. This difference in morale tends to favor the visitors in their quest for three points.

𝕏 On social media X, there are rumors about instability at Sport due to recent administrative transition; for Grêmio, engagement from fans and planned technical reinforcements to further improve performance are highlighted.

Analyzing the median odds (Sport: 3.3 | Draw: 3.64 | Grêmio: 2) converted into fair normalized probabilities, we have approximately: Sport win ~25%, draw ~22%, Grêmio win ~53%. Considering Sports fragile defensive stats combined with the unfavorable emotional context against the superior tactical organization of Grêmio, this distribution makes sense.

Adjusting for the final odds offered by bookmakers (Sport: 4.75 | Draw: 3.8 | Grêmio: 1.75), there is a clear positive value in betting on the home team’s victory according to our internal model (+20% EV), but my analysis disagrees with this optimistic view for Sport due to evident weaknesses both inside and outside the lines.

Therefore, my suggestion is to bet on Grêmio to win, as despite the lower odds (~1.75), they accurately reflect the real probability considering all factors — technically unbalanced teams where the visitor has a clear advantage — and there is a moderate positive expected value in this bet when adjusted for the current situation of the clubs.

Summary: Difficult game for Sport Recife amid internal crisis; Grêmio arrives better prepared physically and mentally; clear favoritism for the visitor even playing away; recommended bet is Grêmio to win 🟢⚽️

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Sport Recife x Gremio?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Sport Recife x Gremio, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Sport Recife x Gremio for the Brazil Serie A – 7 of December

When the best bet on Sport Recife x Gremio is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1449543 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on Sport Recife x Gremio

Sport Recife: Recent headlines from Sport Recife highlight a turbulent end to the 2025 season: the Lion suffered a 3-0 defeat to Bahia at Fonte Nova, with goalkeeper Caíque França delivering a standout performance despite the loss, while the club reversed an earlier plan and will keep 17-year-old midfielder Zé Lucas out of the last two Série A matches against Bahia and Grêmio; former vice-president Augusto Carreras recalled Luciano Jubas departure to Bahia in 2023, noting all offers were rejected, and the club announced a schedule to start paying overdue salaries to players and staff. Analysts described 2025 as an excessively long year for Sport, marking the worst points-per-game campaign of any Pernambuco team in the top division with only 17 points and an imminent record that could match Náuticos poor performance in 2013, while left-back Igor Cariús, despite recent contract renewal, requested a transfer after interest from CRB and Novorizontino. Additionally, the womens team secured their fourth consecutive Pernambuco title with a 6-0 victory over Ipojuca, and the organization is preparing a transition committee to manage football operations until new presidential elections are held.

Grêmio: Grêmio remains in a decisive phase at the end of the 2025 season, with the final round of the Brasileirão scheduled for Sunday against Sport in Recife, after a technical training focused on finishing held on December 4, despite being short of players like midfielder Dodi (suspended) and forward Carlos Vinícius, while Amuzu remains available; before the match against Fluminense on December 2, the club awaited a decision from STJD on penalties but obtained a suspensive effect for Marlon and Kannemann, allowing both to play, while football director Guto Peixoto was free to work. Grêmio also rejected a European offer for reserve forward André Henrique, who has been a substitute for Carlos Vinícius, with six goals and three assists in 35 matches this season; simultaneously, the club announced New Balance as the new kit supplier, ended the loan of left-back Enzo, who will return to CSA, and began pre-season medical exams for 2026 due to the tight schedule, while coach Felipão praised Mano Menezess stay and expressed satisfaction with the teams recent results.

The latest Twitter/X gossip about Sport Recife vs Gremio

🛠 Transition Model at Sport Recife – Sport Recife announced the implementation of a transition model in its football department, involving members from the three competing groups in the supplementary elections for the 2025-2026 biennium. This administrative move indicates a phase of internal change that could cause instability or adjustments in sports management and tactical decisions. In the short term, the team might be affected by this transition, impacting preparation and focus for upcoming matches, including against Grêmio.

⚠️ Political-Turbulent Atmosphere at Sport Recife – Comments related to former directors and changes in the football command reinforce that the club is going through a period of political instability and possible internal conflicts. This environment can negatively influence the working atmosphere for players and staff, reflecting in inconsistent performance on the field.

📉 Recent Relegation of Sport Recife – Although posts mention recent relegations, they confirm that Sport has already been relegated (a relevant piece of information for the team’s mental state). This weighs on the morale and confidence of the athletes, who may feel extra pressure to seek recovery in the Brazilian championship, but it can also cause anxiety or lack of cohesion if the team is still in a rebuilding process.

📣 Fan Engagement and Support for Grêmio – Grêmio’s fans show strong mobilization, including reports of sold-out tickets for important matches, indicating high motivation and support for the visiting team. This fan pressure might enhance Grêmio’s performance and destabilize Sport at home, creating a challenging game environment for the hosts.

👔 Technical Management and Luiz Felipe Scolari’s Influence on Grêmio – Grêmio has Luiz Felipe Scolari as technical coordinator and chief advisor, roles in which he acts as a bridge between the youth system and the professional team, passing on experience and leadership. This boosts the tactical and mental organization of the squad, potentially being a key factor in the match against Sport Recife.

🔄 Possible Reinforcement and Changes at Grêmio – Comments suggest that Grêmio is negotiating to hire a highly qualified professional for technical roles, indicating ongoing structural and strategic improvements. Additionally, beyond the imminent game, renewed interest in Vincent Aboubakar suggests a club active in the transfer market. Even if this doesnt directly impact the match, it hints at a focus on continuous strengthening.

♻️ Implications of the Overall Context of Both Clubs – While Sport Recife goes through internal turbulence with management changes and pressure to perform following relegation, Grêmio shows greater technical stability and fan engagement. This could translate into a tactical advantage, with the visiting team possibly better organized and motivated to exploit the home team’s vulnerabilities.

The combination of the transition process and political instability at Sport Recife with the strong supporter mobilization and technical support at Grêmio creates a challenging scenario for the home team. These insights point to an away game where the visitor could press and capitalize on a potentially emotionally and tactically fragile Sport. Regarding betting markets, this context explains a pricing that may favor Grêmio on the draw or away victory lines, and could lead to a game with scoring opportunities for both sides due to Sport’s defensive vulnerability and Grêmio’s offensive assertiveness. The instability at Sport might also reflect in less consistency, influencing markets such as correct score and Asian handicaps.

Table analysis for the game between Sport Recife and Gremio

Sport Recife: Sport Recife is at the bottom of the league standings with only 17 points, far from the safety zone. Since they are already mathematically relegated, the match against Grêmio has no decisive impact on their goals in the competition. This game mainly serves to regain pride and gain experience for the next season, as the table situation is already settled for the Pernambuco team. ⚠️

Grêmio: Grêmio is in 11th place with 46 points, comfortably in the middle of the table, with no risk of relegation and also out of the direct fight for spots in international competitions this round. Therefore, the match against Sport Recife has moderate importance, and can be used to adjust the team for the final stretch of the championship, but without immediate decisive impact on the standings. ⚽

Summary: The game is more important for Grêmio, which seeks to maintain solid results to ensure a good final position, while for Sport Recife, already relegated, the match is more about completing the schedule and trying to end the championship with some dignity. Therefore, the confrontation has unequal importance for the teams. 🟡🔴

Tips for the Match Odds market for Sport Recife x Gremio

Is it worth betting on Sport Recife?

🔵 Sport Recife: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.11%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.42. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 240 times – this would give you a profit of $580.80
• And would lose other 760 times – losing -$760.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$179.20.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 19.4% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.64. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $501.60;
• And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$308.40.

Is it worth betting on Gremio?

🔴 Gremio: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 56.49% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.92. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 560 times – having a profit of $515.20;
• And would have lost other 440 times – with a loss of -$440.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$75.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Sport Recife x Gremio

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Sport Recife
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sport Recife x Gremio

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 Sport Recife, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Sport Recife.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Sport Recife.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sport Recife x Gremio

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.