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Home » Predictions » Bundesliga 1 » Borussia Dortmund x SC Freiburg Betting tips for November 23 in Germany Bundesliga I
Saturday, 23 November 2024, 14h30 Germany Bundesliga I
Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund
PREDICTION Borussia Dortmund wins Probability 81% 1 X 2
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
ODD: @1.6 Don't miss this prediction!

Borussia Dortmund x SC Freiburg Betting tips for November 23 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Borussia Dortmund x SC Freiburg, Saturday, 23/11/2024
📅 23/11/2024
14:30
Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund
1.60
X
4.20
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
4.80

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Borussia Dortmund x SC Freiburg:

🔮 Borussia Dortmund wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Borussia Dortmund, you can win up to $800.00!

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Important information for your tip for Borussia Dortmund x SC Freiburg:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Dortmund in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $230.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Freiburg in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $175.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Borussia Dortmund scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against SC Freiburg, Borussia Dortmund scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Borussia Dortmund x SC Freiburg, with Borussia Dortmund as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Borussia Dortmund is good playing home: it has 7 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 Borussia Dortmund has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against SC Freiburg.

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Summary

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Analysis from Borussia Dortmund x SC Freiburg for the Germany Bundesliga I – 23 of November

🏟️ Borussia Dortmund X SC Freiburg – Germany Bundesliga I
📅 23 of November, 2024 – 14:30
🔵 Borussia Dortmund – Winning probability: 81.58% | Fair line: 1.23
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 10.63% | Fair line: 9.41
🔴 SC Freiburg – Winning probability: 7.79% | Fair line: 12.84
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Borussia Dortmund
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Borussia Dortmund x SC Freiburg right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1225929 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Borussia Dortmund x SC Freiburg

Should you bet on Borussia Dortmund?

🔵 Borussia Dortmund: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 81.58%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 820 times – having a profit of $492.00;
  • And would lose other 180 times – losing -$180.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$312.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 10.63%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 110 times – profiting $352.00;
  • And would have lost other 890 times – with a loss of -$890.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$538.00.

Is betting on SC Freiburg worth it?

🔴 SC Freiburg: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 7.79%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 80 times – having a profit of $304.00;
  • And would lose other 920 times – losing -$920.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$616.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Borussia Dortmund x SC Freiburg

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Borussia Dortmund
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Borussia Dortmund x SC Freiburg

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.5 Borussia Dortmund, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 Borussia Dortmund.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.0 Borussia Dortmund.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Borussia Dortmund x SC Freiburg

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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