SC Freiburg x St Pauli Betting tips for November 9 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for SC Freiburg x St Pauli, Sunday, 9/11/2025

📅 9/11/2025 14:30

SC Freiburg 1.80

X 3.64

St Pauli 4.30

Our algorithm has selected this tip for SC Freiburg x St Pauli:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for SC Freiburg x St Pauli

Important information for your tip for SC Freiburg x St Pauli:

👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Freiburg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $66.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on St Pauli in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-210.0.
👉 St Pauli did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, SC Freiburg scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 St Pauli matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between SC Freiburg x St Pauli, with SC Freiburg as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, St Pauli conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for St Pauli as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for SC Freiburg vs St Pauli:

Lets analyze the match between SC Freiburg and St Pauli in the Bundesliga, which will be played at Europa-Park-Stadion, the legitimate home of SC Freiburg. This naturally gives Freiburg an advantage, as they have a very solid recent record playing at home: 3 wins and no losses in their last 5 games at their stadium, averaging 2 goals scored per game and only 1 conceded. Additionally, the team has shown strength in Europe with a convincing victory against Nice in the Europa League.

On the other hand, St Pauli is going through a tough phase away from home: only 1 win in their last 5 away games in the Bundesliga, with a low average of goals scored (0.6) and many goals conceded (1.8). The heavy 4-0 defeat to Borussia Mönchengladbach also weighs negatively on the visiting teams morale.

📈 In the league table, although exact data isnt detailed here, we know that SC Freiburg is comfortably positioned in the middle of the table, while St Pauli is fighting to move away from the relegation zone — this increases the motivation for the home team to secure important points against a vulnerable opponent.

📰 The news reinforces this analysis: while Freiburg rotates its squad to maintain performance in European and domestic competitions despite some injuries, St Pauli faces serious recent performance issues and is trying to recover after heavy defeats.

Analyzing the median odds offered by betting sites (home win around 1.8; draw about 3.75; away win above 4), the normalized implied probabilities clearly favor SC Freiburg (~53%), followed by the draw (~27%), and a low chance for St Pauli (~20%). Considering recent offensive/defensive stats and team morale, my fair estimate is close to this or even more favorable to the home team due to the visitors defensive fragility.

Evaluating the expected value calculated by Bets Kenya — which indicates a positive value only on the home win (EV ~6%) — I fully agree! It’s the safest bet here considering all factors involved.

My recommendation: bet on SC Freiburg to win, as the fair odds align with this positive choice statistically and contextually 🏆⚽️

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on SC Freiburg x St Pauli?

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Analysis from SC Freiburg x St Pauli for the Germany Bundesliga I – 9 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between SC Freiburg and St Pauli.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1434498 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news on the match between SC Freiburg and St Pauli

SC Freiburg: SC Freiburg has shown contrasting performances recently, with a strong campaign in Europe highlighted by an away victory of 3-1 over OGC Nice in the Europa League – a quick run of three goals in the first half and another goal by Vincenzo Grifo secured ten points after four matches – while in the DFB-Pokal they advanced after a 2-0 win over Fortuna Düsseldorf, also thanks to a goal from Grifo; domestically in the Bundesliga, the team is mid-table after a goalless draw with Union Berlin, having started the campaign with losses to Augsburg and Cologne, and coach Julian Schuster is planning squad rotation for upcoming league matches amid some injury concerns. Meanwhile, the Freiburg II reserve team reversed an unstable start by winning three consecutive matches in the Regionalliga Südwest.

St. Pauli: St. Pauli secured the signing of Martijn Kaars from Magdeburg as a high-profile transfer for the 2025/26 season, considered the most publicized transfer of the year, and is preparing for a highly anticipated Hamburg derby against Hamburger SV; however, the recent form of the main team remains concerning, having been defeated 4-0 by Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga — a fall nicknamed “Der Zerfall” — while their reserve team, St. Pauli II, is scheduled to participate in upcoming Regionalliga matches.

Table analysis for the match between SC Freiburg and St Pauli

SC Freiburg: SC Freiburg is in 11th place with 10 points, in a comfortable zone regarding relegation, but also distant from European competition spots. This match is important for the team to earn points that ensure safe permanence in the Bundesliga, avoiding bigger scares with the relegation zone nearby (St Pauli with 7 points). Although not in direct threat of relegation, winning against St Pauli at home will keep Freiburg away from risks and could help climb a few positions in the table.

St Pauli: St Pauli is in 15th place, with 7 points, very close to the relegation zone (Augsburg with 7 points in 14th) and in need of points to escape the risk. This match against a direct opponent at the bottom of the table is crucial for St Pauli to try to move away from the Z4. Each point will be contested with great intensity, as the team is in a real fight to avoid relegation.

Summary: This game is very important for both teams, especially for St Pauli fighting to escape relegation, and for SC Freiburg aiming to secure their position further in the first division. A decisive clash with a “six-point game” atmosphere where victory can mean peace of mind for one and danger for the other.

Tips for the Match Odds market for SC Freiburg x St Pauli

Should you bet on SC Freiburg?

🔵 SC Freiburg: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 57.91%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 580 times – profiting $464.00;
• And would lose other 420 times – having a loss of -$420.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$44.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.68% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.64. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $660.00;
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$90.00.

Is it worth betting on St Pauli?

🔴 St Pauli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.41%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 170 times – having a profit of $561.00;
• And would lose other 830 times – losing -$830.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$269.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match SC Freiburg x St Pauli

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 SC Freiburg
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for SC Freiburg x St Pauli

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 SC Freiburg and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 SC Freiburg.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for SC Freiburg x St Pauli

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.