Barcelona x Benfica Betting tips for March 11 in UEFA Champions League

Our betting tip for Barcelona x Benfica, Tuesday, 11/3/2025

📅 11/3/2025 17:45

Barcelona 1.35

X 5.50

Benfica 7.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Barcelona x Benfica:

🔮 Barcelona wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Barcelona, you can win up to $675.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Barcelona x Benfica: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Barcelona in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-138.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Benfica in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $430.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Barcelona scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Benfica scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Barcelona is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 6 home matches, it had at least 60.00% of possession. 👉 Benfica is hard to beat as a visitor: it has 4 wins in a row in its last road matches.

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Barcelona x Benfica?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Barcelona x Benfica, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Barcelona x Benfica for the UEFA Champions League – 11 of March

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Barcelona x Benfica right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1279005 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Barcelona x Benfica

Is betting on Barcelona worth it?

🔵 Barcelona: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 89.21%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.35. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 890 times – this would give you a profit of $311.50
• And would lose other 110 times – having a loss of -$110.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$201.50.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 6.6% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 70 times – this would give you a profit of $315.00
• And would lose other 930 times – losing -$930.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$615.00.

Is it worth betting on Benfica?

🔴 Benfica: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 4.19% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 7.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 40 times – profiting $240.00;
• And would have lost other 960 times – with a loss of -$960.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$720.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Barcelona x Benfica

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Barcelona
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Barcelona x Benfica

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.25 Barcelona and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.5 Barcelona.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.5 Benfica.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Barcelona x Benfica

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.50 goals.