Borussia Dortmund x Celtic Betting tips for October 1 in UEFA Champions League

Our betting tip for Borussia Dortmund x Celtic, Tuesday, 1/10/2024

📅 1/10/2024 16:00

Borussia Dortmund 1.40

X 4.78

Celtic 7.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Borussia Dortmund x Celtic:

🔮 Borussia Dortmund wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Borussia Dortmund, you can win up to $700.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Borussia Dortmund x Celtic: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Dortmund in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $130.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Celtic in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $492.0. 👉 Celtic did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Borussia Dortmund scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Celtic scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Borussia Dortmund is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 4 home matches, it had at least 61.00% of possession. 👉 Celtic is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 away matches, it had at least 75.00% of possession. 👉 Borussia Dortmund is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 In the last 8 road matches, Celtic has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Borussia Dortmund x Celtic for the UEFA Champions League – 1 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Borussia Dortmund x Celtic right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1192611 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Borussia Dortmund x Celtic

Should you bet on Borussia Dortmund?

🔵 Borussia Dortmund: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 86.8%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 870 times – this would give you a profit of $348.00
• And would lose other 130 times – losing -$130.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$218.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 6.86% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.78. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 70 times – having a profit of $264.60;
• And would have lost other 930 times – with a loss of -$930.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$665.40.

Should you bet on Celtic?

🔴 Celtic: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 6.34% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 7.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 60 times – having a profit of $360.00;
• And would lose other 940 times – losing -$940.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$580.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Borussia Dortmund x Celtic

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Borussia Dortmund
⚽ Expected goals: 4.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Borussia Dortmund x Celtic

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Borussia Dortmund and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.25 Borussia Dortmund.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Celtic.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Borussia Dortmund x Celtic

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 4.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 1.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.