Lille x Real Madrid Betting tips for October 2 in UEFA Champions League

Our betting tip for Lille x Real Madrid, Wednesday, 2/10/2024

📅 2/10/2024 16:00

Lille 5.25

X 4.02

Real Madrid 1.58

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Lille x Real Madrid:

🔮 Real Madrid wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Real Madrid, you can win up to $790.00!

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The main points for the tip for Lille x Real Madrid: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Lille in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $31.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Real Madrid in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-325.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Lille scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Real Madrid scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Real Madrid matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 road matches, Real Madrid has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Lille x Real Madrid for the UEFA Champions League – 2 of October

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Lille and Real Madrid.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1193870 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Lille x Real Madrid

Is it worth betting on Lille?

🔵 Lille: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 8.62% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 90 times – profiting $382.50;
• And would lose other 910 times – having a loss of -$910.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$527.50.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 9.15% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.02. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 90 times – having a profit of $271.80;
• And would have lost other 910 times – with a loss of -$910.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$638.20.

Should you bet on Real Madrid?

🔴 Real Madrid: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 82.23%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.58. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 820 times – profiting $475.60;
• And would have lost other 180 times – with a loss of -$180.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$295.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Lille x Real Madrid

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Lille
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lille x Real Madrid

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.75 Lille and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +1.0 Lille.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.0 Lille.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lille x Real Madrid

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.