Olimpija Ljubljana x Kairat Almaty Betting tips for July 8 in UEFA Champions League Qualifying
| 📅 8/7/2025 17:00 |
 Olimpija Ljubljana1.49 |
X 4.20 |
Kairat Almaty  6.00 |
This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Olimpija Ljubljana x Kairat Almaty:
🔮 Olimpija Ljubljana wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Olimpija Ljubljana, you can win up to $745.00!
The main points for the tip for Olimpija Ljubljana x Kairat Almaty:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Olimpija Ljubljana in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $147.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Kairat Almaty in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-65.0.
👉 In the last 9 matches as the home team, Olimpija Ljubljana scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Kairat Almaty scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Olimpija Ljubljana matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 road matches, Kairat Almaty has not lost any of them.
🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Olimpija Ljubljana vs Kairat Almaty?
Lets analyze the match between Olimpija Ljubljana and Kairat Almaty in the UEFA Champions League Qualifying, which will be held at Stožice Stadium, home of Olimpija Ljubljana. The home team shows a very strong performance in their recent home games, with 4 wins and only 1 draw in the last 5 matches, scoring a high average of goals (3 per game) and conceding few (1 per game). Additionally, the team has a good shot average (10 shots per game) and maintains controlled ball possession. Meanwhile, Kairat Almaty has a more irregular away performance, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five away matches. They score fewer goals (average 1 goal per game) and concede more goals comparatively.
The median odds indicate a clear favoritism for Olimpija Ljubljana with median odds around 1.49 for the home team’s victory, against much higher odds for a draw (4.2) and an away win (6). After normalizing the implied probabilities from the median odds, we get something close to: home win ~62%, draw ~15%, away win ~10%. Considering Olimpija Ljubljana’s strong offensive stats at home and the defensive instability of the visitors away, this distribution makes sense.
The Bets Kenya model suggests an even higher probability for the home team’s victory (~75%) reflected in the low predicted odds (~1.34), while assigning very low probabilities to a draw (~12%) and an away win (~13%), resulting in a high positive expected value only on the bet on the home team (+28%). I agree that the value is concentrated on the host team due to their recent statistical dominance playing at Stožice Stadium.
📰 Regarding recent news: Olimpija Ljubljana is on a winning streak after important friendly wins like against CSKA Sofia 3-0, showing good offensive form before this qualifying phase; meanwhile, Kairat Almaty is the current national champion but faces typical challenges outside their country that could negatively impact their performance here.
Final analysis: The recommended bet is clearly on Olimpija Ljubljana’s victory with a significant positive expected value (>20%). The recent conditions of the teams combined with the home advantage confirm this favorable reading for the Slovenian team. I would avoid bets on a draw or away win due to low negative EV in those options according to our calculations.
Good luck! ⚽💰
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Analysis from Olimpija Ljubljana x Kairat Almaty for the UEFA Champions League Qualifying – 8 of July
🏟️ Olimpija Ljubljana X Kairat Almaty – UEFA Champions League Qualifying
📅 8 of July, 2025 – 17:00
🔵 Olimpija Ljubljana – Winning probability: 74.02% | Fair line: 1.35
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 12.05% | Fair line: 8.3
🔴 Kairat Almaty – Winning probability: 13.93% | Fair line: 7.18
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Olimpija Ljubljana
⚽ Expected goals: 3.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks
When the best bet on Olimpija Ljubljana x Kairat Almaty is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1349789 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Olimpija Ljubljana x Kairat Almaty
Should you bet on Olimpija Ljubljana?
🔵 Olimpija Ljubljana: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 74.02% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.49. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 740 times – this would give you a profit of $362.60
- And would have lost other 260 times – with a loss of -$260.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$102.60.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 12.05%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 120 times – this would give you a profit of $384.00
- And would have lost other 880 times – with a loss of -$880.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$496.00.
Should you bet on Kairat Almaty?
🔴 Kairat Almaty: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.93% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 140 times – this would give you a profit of $700.00
- And would have lost other 860 times – with a loss of -$860.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$160.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Olimpija Ljubljana x Kairat Almaty
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Olimpija Ljubljana
⚽ Expected goals: 3.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Olimpija Ljubljana x Kairat Almaty
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Olimpija Ljubljana and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Olimpija Ljubljana.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 Kairat Almaty.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Olimpija Ljubljana x Kairat Almaty
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 1.00, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.
