Aston Villa x Bournemouth Betting tips for November 9 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Aston Villa x Bournemouth, Sunday, 9/11/2025

📅 9/11/2025 14:00

Aston Villa 2.10

X 3.50

Bournemouth 3.28

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Aston Villa x Bournemouth:

🔮 Aston Villa wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Aston Villa, you can win up to $1050.00!

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The main points for the tip for Aston Villa x Bournemouth:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Aston Villa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $667.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Bournemouth in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-120.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Aston Villa scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Bournemouth scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Bournemouth, Aston Villa scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Bournemouth matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Bournemouth conceded at least 2 goal(s).
👉 Aston Villa is good playing home: it has 5 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 Aston Villa has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Bournemouth playing at home.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?

Lets analyze the match between Aston Villa and Bournemouth at Villa Park, a historic stadium and home of Aston Villa, which definitely gives an advantage to the home team. Aston Villa comes from an impressive home streak with 5 wins in the last 5 games, scoring an average of 1.8 goals per game and conceding only 0.4 goals. Bournemouth has shown fragility away from home, with only 1 win in the last 5 away games and conceding more goals (average of 2.4) than they score (average of 1.8).

The median odds indicate a slight preference for Aston Villa (2.1), followed by a draw (3.52), and Bournemouth win (3.3). Converting these odds into normalized implied probabilities, we get approximately: Aston Villa win ~47%, draw ~28%, Bournemouth win ~25%. Considering recent statistics — especially Aston Villas defensive solidity at home against the visitors defensive vulnerability — my adjusted estimate would be something close to: Aston Villa win ~50%, draw ~27%, Bournemouth win ~23%.

Calculating the fair odds based on these adjusted probabilities, we have: Aston Villa with a fair odd close to 2.0, a draw around 3.7, and Bournemouth near 4.35. Compared to the final odds offered by bookmakers, there is value in betting on the home team.

📰 News:
Aston Villa is motivated by their good position in the table (eighth place), aiming to get closer to European spots, despite the recent loss to Liverpool; Bournemouth faces tactical challenges under new coach Andoni Iraola, who is trying to implement an intense style but still suffers defensively away from home; transfer rumors may affect the emotional stability of the visiting players.

📈 Table analysis:
Aston Villa is in a comfortable position but aims to climb higher to secure a European spot; this increases their motivation playing at their traditional stadium where they are historically strong; Bournemouth struggles to improve results away but hasnt been able to translate that into important points.

The analysis by Bets Kenya suggests clear value in betting on the home team with a positive EV above 12%, I fully agree! The model slightly underestimates the real chances given recent statistics and the emotional context of the teams.
My recommendation is to bet on the Aston Villa to win, as well as recent solid offensive/defensive stats combined with the historical advantage of playing at their own stadium, the current odds offer good expected returns.
Lets go! ⚽🔥

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Analysis from Aston Villa x Bournemouth for the England Premier League – 9 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Aston Villa and Bournemouth.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1434498 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on Aston Villa x Bournemouth

Aston Villa: Aston Villa is currently eighth in the Premier League, just one point behind the fifth place, and recently suffered a 2-0 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield, where Unai Emery was forced to substitute the injured Emi Buendía for Evann Guessand; the club is also linked to young striker Endrick from Real Madrid as a potential signing, while in Europe they are traveling to face Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Europa League on November 6, a match that went smoothly without major incidents.

Bournemouth: Bournemouth has been busy both on and off the pitch recently, with Manchester City of the Premier League handing the Cherries a 3-1 defeat on November 2, 2025, with Erling Haaland scoring twice; despite the loss, Bournemouths attacking trio of Antoine Semenyo, Marc Brooks, and Samuel Tavernier was highlighted for their threat in attack. Transfer talks continue, with Paris Saint-Germain entering advanced negotiations to sign defender Illia Zabarnyi for about £54.5 million, while Brentford is in early talks to acquire winger Dango Ouattara as a replacement for Bryan Mbeumo. Semenyo, who faced speculation about his future, confirmed he is aware of the rumors but is happy to have stayed at Bournemouth after the summer, and new coach Andoni Iraola is preparing a high-intensity, pressurized style of play for upcoming fixtures, including a tough challenge against Aston Villa.

England Premier League table analysis for Aston Villa x Bournemouth

Aston Villa: Aston Villa is in 11th place with 15 points, a bit away from the international competition qualification zone but also comfortable enough to avoid relegation risks. This match against Bournemouth is important for Villa because it can help improve their position on the table and maybe fight for spots that qualify for European competitions. A win could bring them closer to the top teams, boosting confidence and motivation for upcoming matches.

Bournemouth: Bournemouth is in 5th place with 18 points, tied with teams competing for spots in European competitions like the UEFA Europa League and the Champions League. For Bournemouth, this game is crucial to maintain or even improve their position at the top of the table, as a victory can secure a good run in the fight for international spots, while a loss could make this more difficult. The match is decisive to solidify their presence among the teams competing in continental tournaments.

Summary: The game is important for both teams, as Aston Villa aims to climb the table and improve their position to compete for higher spots, while Bournemouth wants to keep their place in the European qualification zone. A match with weight on both sides! ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Aston Villa x Bournemouth

Is it a good idea to bet on Aston Villa?

🔵 Aston Villa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 46.72% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 470 times – this would give you a profit of $517.00
• And would lose other 530 times – having a loss of -$530.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$13.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 29.52%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 300 times – profiting $750.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$50.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Bournemouth?

🔴 Bournemouth: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 23.76%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.28. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 240 times – having a profit of $547.20;
• And would lose other 760 times – having a loss of -$760.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$212.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match Aston Villa x Bournemouth

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Aston Villa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Aston Villa x Bournemouth

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Aston Villa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Aston Villa. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Aston Villa x Bournemouth

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.