📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Aston Villa x Man Utd
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Analysis from Aston Villa x Man Utd for the England Premier League – 15 of January
🏟️ Aston Villa X Man Utd – England Premier League
When the best bet on Aston Villa x Man Utd is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 287992 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Aston Villa x Man Utd
Is it a good idea to bet on Aston Villa?
🔵 Aston Villa: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 27.57%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.28. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 280 times – having a profit of $638.40;
- And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$81.60.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.9% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.65. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 280 times – this would give you a profit of $742.00
- And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$22.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is it worth betting on Man Utd?
🔴 Man Utd: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 44.52% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.05. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 450 times – profiting $472.50;
- And would lose other 550 times – losing -$550.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$77.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Aston Villa x Man Utd
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Aston Villa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Aston Villa x Man Utd
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 Aston Villa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Aston Villa.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Aston Villa x Man Utd
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.
You can check out our tips on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves