Bournemouth x Southampton Betting tips for September 30 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Bournemouth x Southampton, Monday, 30/9/2024

📅 30/9/2024 16:00

Bournemouth 1.64

X 4.05

Southampton 4.78

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Bournemouth x Southampton:

🔮 Bournemouth wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Bournemouth, you can win up to $820.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Bournemouth x Southampton: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Bournemouth in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-194.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Southampton in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-133.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Southampton scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Bournemouth conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Southampton conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Bournemouth conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Southampton. 👉 Southampton is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 4 away matches, it had at least 63.00% of possession. 👉 Even as a visitor, Southampton won the last 3 head-to-head matches Bournemouth´s territory

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Analysis from Bournemouth x Southampton for the England Premier League – 30 of September

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Bournemouth and Southampton.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1191189 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Bournemouth x Southampton

Is betting on Bournemouth worth it?

🔵 Bournemouth: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 78.85%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.64. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 790 times – profiting $505.60;
• And would lose other 210 times – having a loss of -$210.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$295.60.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 12.89%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.05. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 130 times – having a profit of $396.50;
• And would have lost other 870 times – with a loss of -$870.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$473.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on Southampton?

🔴 Southampton: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 8.26%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.78. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 80 times – this would give you a profit of $302.40
• And would lose other 920 times – having a loss of -$920.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$617.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Bournemouth x Southampton

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Bournemouth
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Bournemouth x Southampton

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Bournemouth and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Bournemouth.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Southampton.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Bournemouth x Southampton

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.