📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Burnley x Everton
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Analysis from Burnley x Everton for the England Premier League – 26 of December
🏟️ Burnley X Everton – England Premier League
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Burnley x Evertonright, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 281997 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Burnley x Everton
Is betting on Burnley worth it?
🔵 Burnley: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 54.59% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.62. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 550 times – this would give you a profit of $888.80
- And would lose other 450 times – having a loss of -$450.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$438.80.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.83%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.15. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $537.50
- And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$212.50.
Is it worth betting on Everton?
🔴 Everton: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 20.57% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.77. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 210 times – having a profit of $370.65;
- And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$419.35.
Handicaps analysis for the match Burnley x Everton
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Burnley
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the market Handicap 1×2 for Burnley x Everton
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Burnley, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Burnley.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Burnley.
Tips for the market Goals Handicap for Burnley x Everton
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
Our tips are also on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves