📊 You can also check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Burnley x Watford
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Analysis from Burnley x Watford for the England Premier League – 18 of January
🏟️ Burnley X Watford – England Premier League
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Burnley x Watford right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 289715 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Burnley x Watford
Is it a good idea to bet on Burnley?
🔵 Burnley: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 50.12% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.13. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 500 times – having a profit of $565.00;
- And would lose other 500 times – having a loss of -$500.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$65.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 15.87% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.35. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 160 times – having a profit of $376.00;
- And would have lost other 840 times – with a loss of -$840.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$464.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Watford?
🔴 Watford: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 34.01% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 340 times – profiting $816.00;
- And would lose other 660 times – losing -$660.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$156.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Burnley x Watford
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Burnley
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Burnley x Watford
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Burnley, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Burnley.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Burnley.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Burnley x Watford
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves