📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Everton x Aston Villa
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Analysis from Everton x Aston Villa for the England Premier League – 22 of January
🏟️ Everton X Aston Villa – England Premier League
When the best bet on Everton x Aston Villa is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 290605 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Everton x Aston Villa
Is it a good idea to bet on Everton?
🔵 Everton: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 45.05% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.55. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 450 times – profiting $697.50;
- And would lose other 550 times – losing -$550.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$147.50.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.94%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 310 times – having a profit of $697.50;
- And would lose other 690 times – losing -$690.00 with them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$7.50 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is betting on Aston Villa worth it?
🔴 Aston Villa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.01% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 240 times – profiting $420.00;
- And would lose other 760 times – having a loss of -$760.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$340.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Everton x Aston Villa
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Everton
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Everton x Aston Villa
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Everton and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Everton.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Everton.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Everton x Aston Villa
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves