📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Newcastle x Watford
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Analysis from Newcastle x Watford for the England Premier League – 15 of January
🏟️ Newcastle X Watford – England Premier League
When the best bet on Newcastle x Watford is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 287992 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Newcastle x Watford
Is betting on Newcastle worth it?
🔵 Newcastle: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 44.62% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 450 times – this would give you a profit of $497.25
- And would lose other 550 times – having a loss of -$550.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$52.75.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 27.82% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.62. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 280 times – having a profit of $733.60;
- And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$13.60 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is it worth betting on Watford?
🔴 Watford: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 27.56% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.27. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 280 times – profiting $637.00;
- And would have lost other 720 times – with a loss of -$720.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$83.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Newcastle x Watford
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Newcastle
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Newcastle x Watford
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Newcastle, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Newcastle.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Newcastle x Watford
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves