Nottm Forest x Leeds Betting tips for November 9 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Nottm Forest x Leeds, Sunday, 9/11/2025

📅 9/11/2025 14:00

Nottm Forest 2.25

X 3.30

Leeds 3.20

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Nottm Forest x Leeds:

🔮 Nottm Forest wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Nottm Forest, you can win up to $1125.00!

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The main points for the tip for Nottm Forest x Leeds:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Nottm Forest in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-238.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Leeds in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-230.0.
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Nottm Forest x Leeds, with Nottm Forest as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Leeds conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Nottm Forest vs Leeds?

Lets analyze the match between Nottingham Forest and Leeds at City Ground, the traditional Forest stadium, which certainly provides an important home advantage for the home team. 🏟️

📈 Nottingham Forest is in a delicate situation in the Premier League, occupying 19th place with only five points so far. In recent home games, they scored 6 goals and conceded 9, with only one win in their last five matches at their stadium. Leeds, on the other hand, also comes from poor results away: scored 4 goals and conceded 11 in their last five away games.

Statistics show that Forest has a higher shot average (16 vs 10) and greater ball possession (53% vs 42%) when playing at City Ground. Despite this, they concede more goals per game (2 vs 1) and have had recent defensive struggles.

📰 Recent news indicates Nottingham Forest recently drew goalless in the Europa League but faces internal challenges such as VAR controversies and off-field issues related to the club owner. Leeds, meanwhile, suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat to Brighton away recently, showing defensive fragility.

Analyzing the median odds offered by bookmakers: home win is priced at about @2.25; draw @3.3; away win @3.2 — converting this into normalized implied probabilities gives approximately:

• Nottingham Forest win: ~44%
• Draw: ~30%
• Leeds win: ~26%

Based on the offensive/defensive statistics of the teams combined with the clear advantage of City Ground for Nottingham Forest (playing at their usual stadium), my fair estimate of the probabilities would be close to:

• Nottingham Forest wins: ~45% – driven by the urgent need for points and home support;
• Draw: ~28% – possible given defensive issues;
• Leeds wins: ~27% – despite their recent poor form, still a competitive team;

Therefore, fair odds would be approximately:

• Nottingham Forest: @2.22
• Draw: @3.57
• Leeds: @3.70

Looking at the final offered odds (@2.20 / @3.25 / @3.40), I see positive value mainly in betting on Nottingham Forest to win because the odds are slightly better than my fair odds calculated considering all factors — this generates a positive expected value above +8% as indicated by the Bets Kenya club model.

Betting on a draw or away win does not seem to have positive expected value at this moment due to the evident weaknesses of these teams in recent matches analyzed.

Final suggestion:

• – Bet on Nottingham Forest to win, taking advantage of their strength playing at City Ground despite recent difficulties;

Good luck! 🍀⚽️ #PremierLeague #NottinghamForest #LeedsUnited

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Nottm Forest x Leeds?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Nottm Forest x Leeds, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Nottm Forest x Leeds for the England Premier League – 9 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Nottm Forest x Leeds right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1434498 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

The latest news about Nottm Forest x Leeds

Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest was busy in early November 2025, with Sean Dyches team drawing 0-0 against Sturm Graz in the Europa League on November 6, a match where Morgan Gibbs-White missed his first penalty for the club and Nicolas Domínguez hit the post in stoppage time, leaving Forest still in 19th place in the Premier League with five points and no goals conceded in European competitions under Dyche; the next day, owner Evangelos Marinakis promised financial assistance to fans injured in the Huntingdon train attack, and on November 1, Dyche publicly called for changes in VAR procedures after a controversial goal from a corner secured Manchester Uniteds draw at the City Ground.

Leeds United: Leeds United suffered a 3-0 defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion on November 1, 2025, in the Premier League, at the Amex Stadium before 31,512 spectators; Danny Welbeck opened the scoring in the 11th minute and Diego Gómez scored twice in the 64th and 70th minutes, while Leeds starting lineup included captain E. Ampadu in midfield, J. Rodon in central defense, and A. Longstaff on the wing, but they couldnt find the net despite good ball possession.

Table analysis for the match between Nottm Forest and Leeds

Nottm Forest: The team is in 19th place, within the relegation zone, with only 6 points earned and an extremely negative goal difference (-12). With only a few rounds left in the season, this match is crucial to try to escape direct relegation. Every point will be vital to keep the hope of staying in the Premier League alive. The match against Leeds is essential for Nottm Forest to start a reaction in the standings.

Leeds: Located in 16th place with 11 points and a negative goal difference (-8), Leeds is close to the relegation zone and cannot afford to lose important points. There is still a chance to move away from the threat of relegation, but it depends on results like this game against Nottm Forest, which is also fighting to avoid dropping. Therefore, Leeds sees this match as extremely important to maintain a safe distance from the danger zone.

Summary: This is an extremely important game for both teams, as it directly involves the fight against relegation. A victory could mean a breath of fresh air and a real chance to stay in the top division, while a defeat could further complicate the situation in the standings. ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Nottm Forest x Leeds

Is it worth betting on Nottm Forest?

🔵 Nottm Forest: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 51.41%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 510 times – profiting $637.50;
• And would lose other 490 times – losing -$490.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$147.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 23.96%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – profiting $552.00;
• And would lose other 760 times – having a loss of -$760.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$208.00.

Should you bet on Leeds?

🔴 Leeds: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.63%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $550.00
• And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$200.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Nottm Forest x Leeds

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Nottm Forest
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Nottm Forest x Leeds

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Nottm Forest, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Nottm Forest.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Leeds.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Nottm Forest x Leeds

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.