Sunderland x Chelsea Betting tips for May 24 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Sunderland x Chelsea, Sunday, 24/5/2026

📅 24/5/2026 15:00

Sunderland 3.60

X 3.64

Chelsea 1.95

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Sunderland x Chelsea:

🔮 Sunderland wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Sunderland, you can win up to $1800.00!

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The main points for the tip for Sunderland x Chelsea:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Sunderland in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-225.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Chelsea in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-347.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Chelsea conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Sunderland vs Chelsea:

⚽ Sunderland vs Chelsea (Premier League) — Stadium of Light

Based on recent statistics, the most likely scenario is Chelsea to win, but there is a relevant risk for a “draw” due to Sunderlands defensive profile: in their last 5 home matches they scored only 2 goals and conceded 9, and recorded 1 draw. Chelsea, away from home, is also not an “explosive” attacking side: they scored 7 goals and conceded 14, but have a clear advantage in control (possession fairly balanced/slightly favouring the visitors: 47-53) and in relative attacking volume (total shots 8×11; shots on target 3×7). This aligns with a tactical reading: Chelsea tends to be more efficient at scoring even without dominating in absolute numbers.

STEP 1 — “Fair” probabilities (normalized)

Sunderland win: 0.27 → fair odds ≈ 3.70
Draw: 0.26 → fair odds ≈ 3.85
Chelsea win: 0.47 → fair odds ≈ 2.13

Important note about your model (quick comparison): the Bets Kenya model is quite conservative on the draw (it gives too much chance to Sunderland/less to the draw). I partly agree with the overall direction (Chelsea favoured even playing away/against low local attacking pressure from Sunderland), but I think there is room for the draw to be less unlikely than it suggests.

STEP 2 — My projected fair odds + extra statistical reading

– Despite low goal averages for both sides in the provided samples (Sunderland: goals for avg = 0 / against = 2; Chelsea: goals for avg = 1 / against = 3 in the recent sample), I push the probability towards Chelsea because:
  • Sunderland is very weakened in the league (only 1 win in the last five league matches)
  • Chelsea has better relative defensive/offensive capacity measured by shots on target and possession
  • There is a clear sign of sustained offensive decline for Sunderland at home (scored little and conceded a lot).

– The draw is the secondary route because its real chances appear when we see that, despite conceding a lot, Sunderland still manages to score occasionally within this poor pattern.

STEP 3 — EV using the final quoted odds

(Final odds: Home=3.6 | Draw=3.6 | Away=2.0)

Sunderland EV: (3.6 / 3.70 -1)*100 ≈ -2%

Draw EV: (3.6 / 3.85 -1)*100 ≈ -6%

Chelsea EV: (2.0 / 2.13 -1)*100 ≈ -6% (approx.) → negative as well given the current price vs my fair odds estimate

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Sunderland x Chelsea?

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Analysis from Sunderland x Chelsea for the England Premier League – 24 of May

Latest news on the match between Sunderland and Chelsea

Sunderland: Sunderland sit 18th in the Premier League with 48 points, following an inconsistent run that included a 1-1 draw with Bournemouth on 28 February 2026, a goalless draw against Manchester United, another 1-1 with Wolverhampton Wanderers and a heavy 5-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest. In their last five league matches the side has recorded just one win. The squad is currently missing Bamba Traoré and Romaine Mundle through injury, and defender Dan Ballard is suspended. Goalkeeper Robin Roefs is also unavailable, although his performances have attracted attention and transfer interest from Chelsea and Liverpool. Among the names gaining prominence in recent discussions are midfielder Noah Sadiki and defender Geertruida. Wilson Isidor earned a place on the preliminary list for the 2026 World Cup. Off the field, the Bay Collective is in the process of acquiring 80% of Sunderland Women’s shares.

Chelsea: Chelsea have entered a transition period and have confirmed former midfielder and coach Xabi Alonso, who played for Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen, as the club’s new manager on a four-year contract, starting 1 July, after a turbulent season that saw three different coaches. Interim Calum McFarlane led the side to a 2-1 win over Tottenham on 19 May, but the team were beaten 1-0 by Manchester City in the FA Cup final, in which Antoine Semenyo scored the winning goal. As a result, Chelsea finished the season without trophies and ended the Premier League in eighth with 49 points. The club is now seeking defensive reinforcements, with Maxence Lacroix named a transfer priority. There are also reports that Marc Cucurella is being treated as a “priority” at Atlético de Madrid, while Chelsea themselves included Cucurella and Crystal Palace defender Lacroix on their transfer list. The side is also linked to West Ham captain Jarrod Bowen. In women’s football, Chelsea’s WSL campaign under Sonia Bompastor was graded C+, finishing third and missing out on automatic qualification for the UEFA Women’s Champions League after an underwhelming attacking output and injuries to Sam Kerr and Mayra Ramírez.

Table analysis for the game between Sunderland and Chelsea

Sunderland: Sunderland sits in 10th with 51 points. That puts the team “in mid-table”, far from the relegation zone (where West Ham have 36, Burnley 21 and Wolves 19). At the same time, it is also far from the direct fight for higher European spots (Chelsea have 52 and Bournemouth 56). So the match is more important for the “points snapshot” than for an immediate decision: it can help close in on the group above and gain breathing room in the final half of the season, but it does not look like a destiny-defining game. 🎯

Chelsea: Chelsea are in 8th with 52 points, very close to rivals at the top (Sunderland have 51, i.e. a minimal difference of 1 point). In addition, the table points to objectives beyond mid-table: the team sits within continental qualification range (there is a Conference League spot just above in the standings). Thus, this matchup tends to be much more relevant for Chelsea: a win can be crucial to establish themselves in the fight for a European position and also gain a direct advantage over a nearby rival in the table. 🔵

Summary: Match important mainly for Chelsea (for the battle over positions and the “head-to-head” with Sunderland). For Sunderland, it is relevant to keep up the pace and improve position, but without the feel of a total relegation or title-deciding match.

How the handicap and odds moved for Sunderland x Chelsea

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Sunderland x Chelsea.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Sunderland x Chelsea

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Sunderland x Chelsea right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1550876 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it a good idea to bet on Sunderland?

🔵 Sunderland: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 37.04% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 370 times – this would give you a profit of $962.00
• And would have lost other 630 times – with a loss of -$630.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$332.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.26% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.64. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 210 times – having a profit of $554.40;
• And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$235.60.

Should you bet on Chelsea?

🔴 Chelsea: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 41.7% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.95. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 420 times – profiting $399.00;
• And would lose other 580 times – losing -$580.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$181.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Sunderland x Chelsea

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Sunderland
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sunderland x Chelsea

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Sunderland, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Sunderland.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Sunderland.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sunderland x Chelsea

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Sunderland x Chelsea