📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Wolverhampton x Southampton
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Analysis from Wolverhampton x Southampton for the England Premier League – 15 of January
🏟️ Wolverhampton X Southampton – England Premier League
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Wolverhampton x Southampton right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 287992 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Wolverhampton x Southampton
Is it worth betting on Wolverhampton?
🔵 Wolverhampton: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 45.01%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 450 times – having a profit of $540.00;
- And would lose other 550 times – having a loss of -$550.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$10.00.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.17% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.23. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 290 times – having a profit of $645.25;
- And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$64.75.
Is betting on Southampton worth it?
🔴 Southampton: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.81% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 260 times – profiting $624.00;
- And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$116.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Wolverhampton x Southampton
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Wolverhampton
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Wolverhampton x Southampton
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Wolverhampton and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Wolverhampton.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Wolverhampton x Southampton
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves