AZ x PSV Betting tips for November 9 in Netherlands Eredivisie

Our betting tip for AZ x PSV, Sunday, 9/11/2025

📅 9/11/2025 15:45

AZ 2.84

X 3.89

PSV 2.15

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for AZ x PSV:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for AZ x PSV

Important information for your tip for AZ x PSV:

👉 If you had bet $100 on AZ in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-75.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on PSV in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $58.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, AZ scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, PSV scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between AZ x PSV, with AZ as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Playing as the home team, AZ conceded at least 2 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against PSV.
👉 AZ is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 In the last 7 road matches, PSV has not lost any of them.
👉 Even as a visitor, PSV won the last 4 head-to-head matches AZ´s territory

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for AZ vs PSV?

The duel between AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven promises to be electrifying at the AFAS Stadion, home of AZ, which has shown strength with a streak of five consecutive victories and is in third place in the Eredivisie. The home team has solid offensive and defensive averages in recent games, with 2 goals scored per match on average at home and good ball possession (58%). PSV also comes energized, with 5 away wins in a row in the same competition, averaging 2 goals scored per away game and clear dominance in possession (60%).

📈 In the league table, AZ is close to the leaders, trying to catch up to fight for the top, while PSV maintains a strong position just behind. This fierce competition increases the motivation of both teams to seek the three points.

📰 The news reinforces this analysis: AZ is energized after an important victory against Sparta Rotterdam despite recent European pressure; PSV remains firm with a significant win over Fortuna Sittard and ambitious plans to expand its stadium in the coming years — a clear sign of the clubs confidence.

Analyzing the median odds offered by bookmakers (3.0 for AZ win; 4.0 for draw; 2.1 for PSV win) adjusted for the margin, we have approximate fair probabilities: ~34% for AZ victory, ~25% for a draw, and ~41% for PSV victory.

However, considering detailed statistics — especially the balanced offensive strength of both teams but a slight defensive advantage for AZ playing in their modern stadium — my estimate slightly adjusts the home team’s chances to about 38%, a draw around 27%, and the visiting team’s chance a bit lower than the odds suggest (~35%). This indicates that current odds slightly underestimate AZ’s home potential.

Calculating the expected value (EV) of the final odds given by the market versus my fair probabilities: betting on AZ Alkmaar offers a positive EV above 5%, indicating value at the current odds close to @3.0.

Suggested bet: Victory for AZ Alkmaar, as well as recent favorable statistics for the home team at AFAS Stadion 🏟️ , extra motivation from the league position 📈, and renewed confidence after recent good results 📰 .

Discrepancy with Bets Kenya model: The model indicates value only in the PSV bet (positive EV), but I believe it underestimates the impact of the solid home advantage combined with AZ’s recent good form at home. My analysis points to greater balance or even slight favoritism for the home team in this specific scenario.

Always remember: sports betting involves risks! Use this analysis as part of your decision-making combined with proper bankroll management 😉⚽️

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on AZ x PSV?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2025, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on AZ x PSV:

Analysis from AZ x PSV for the Netherlands Eredivisie – 9 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between AZ and PSV.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1434498 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

The latest news about AZ x PSV

AZ Alkmaar: AZ Alkmaar is experiencing a strong streak domestically, extending a run of five consecutive wins across all competitions and currently holding third place in the Eredivisie, just four points behind the leaders. However, their hopes in Europe were dashed after a 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace in the Conference League on November 6, 2025, with Palaces Ismaïla Sarr scoring two goals, while AZs Sven Mijnans scored a consolation. Earlier in the week, AZ ended Sparta Rotterdams four-match unbeaten streak, with goalkeeper Joel Drommel making 14 saves in a 2-1 victory, which also secured the team a spot in the Eredivisie Team of the Week.

PSV Eindhoven: PSV Eindhoven confirmed that the Eindhoven city council approved a plan to expand the Philips Stadion by at least 10,000 seats, increasing the current capacity of 35,000 seats, with construction expected to start in 2027. The club also announced a 5-2 home victory over Fortuna Sittard, where Ismael Saibari opened the scoring with a header and scored a second goal, while Dennis Man provided a three-goal lead before halftime, extending PSVs good form after recent wins against Napoli and Feyenoord. The team was drawn to face an amateur team in the second round of the KNVB Cup.

Netherlands Eredivisie table analysis for AZ x PSV

AZ: AZ is in 3rd place in the league with 24 points, currently securing a spot in the Champions League qualification phase. The team is 4 points behind PSV, which is in 2nd place, and the gap to the leader Feyenoord is also 4 points. With only a few rounds remaining, the match against PSV is very important for AZ, as a victory could bring the team closer to the vice-leadership and strengthen its chances in the direct fight for a more advantageous spot in the Champions League. Therefore, the game is decisive for AZs European ambitions this season.

PSV: PSV is in 2nd place with 28 points, tied with the leader Feyenoord, but with a slightly inferior goal difference. The match against 3rd place AZ is crucial to maintain the league lead, especially since a loss could allow the opponent to reduce the points gap. Additionally, PSV aims to secure direct qualification to the Champions League and may even target the title, depending on the results of upcoming rounds. Thus, the match is highly important to keep PSV firmly in the race for the top of Eredivisie.

Summary: The game between AZ and PSV is very important for both teams, as it directly influences the fight for the leadership and Champions League spots. It is a decisive confrontation in this final stretch of the championship, which could determine crucial positions for European qualification.

Tips for the Match Odds market for AZ x PSV

Is it a good idea to bet on AZ?

🔵 AZ: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.39% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.84. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $552.00;
• And would have lost other 700 times – with a loss of -$700.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$148.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 21.9% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.89. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $635.80;
• And would have lost other 780 times – with a loss of -$780.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$144.20.

Is it worth betting on PSV?

🔴 PSV: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 47.71%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.15. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 480 times – having a profit of $552.00;
• And would have lost other 520 times – with a loss of -$520.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$32.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Handicaps analysis for the match AZ x PSV

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 AZ
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AZ x PSV

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 AZ, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 AZ.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 AZ.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AZ x PSV

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.25 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.