NEC x FC Groningen Betting tips for November 9 in Netherlands Eredivisie
| 📅 9/11/2025 13:30 |
 NEC1.91 |
X 3.70 |
FC Groningen  3.60 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for NEC x FC Groningen:
🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1850.00!
Some important points for the tip for NEC x FC Groningen:
👉 If you had bet $100 on NEC in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $160.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on FC Groningen in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $477.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, NEC scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, FC Groningen scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against FC Groningen, NEC scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 NEC matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 FC Groningen matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, NEC conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, FC Groningen conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 NEC has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against FC Groningen playing at home.
🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for NEC vs FC Groningen?
Lets analyze the match between NEC and FC Groningen at Goffertstadion, home of NEC Nijmegen. Based on recent statistics, NEC has a solid home performance with an average of goals scored higher than conceded (3 to 2), good ball possession (55%), and more accurate shots than the opponent. FC Groningen shows balanced away stats but concedes more goals than it scores (average 2 to 2) and has less ball possession (43%).
Median odds indicate a slight advantage for NEC with around 1.9 for the home team to win, a draw at 3.8, and an away win at 3.6.
📰 News reports show NEC is mid-table with inconsistent recent performance, including heavy defeats like 5-0 against Excelsior; meanwhile, FC Groningen has been “flying high” in recent rounds despite a recent draw against Twente and some below-average individual performances.
📈 In the table, both teams are close in standings with no major pressure for extreme results this round, but the home advantage at Goffertstadion slightly favors NEC.
Analyzing fair probabilities based on data: adjusting the implied probabilities from median odds gives approximately: NEC win ~48%, draw ~24%, Groningen win ~28%. This suggests a higher expectation for the home team to win or at least a balanced game with a reasonable chance of a draw.
Considering offensive/defensive stats and recent news, the fair odds for NEC victory are around 2.05 due to strong home offense; a draw around 3.9 reflecting competitiveness; and the fair odds for an away win increase to about 3.5, indicating less confidence in the away attack.
Compared to Bets Kenya model predictions — which show a positive expected value only on betting for the home team (EV +3.8%) — I partially agree as I also see value in the draw due to the recent strong defensive resistance of the visitors.
However, I do not recommend betting on the away win given its negative EV (-30%), indicating a low realistic probability of this outcome based on current data.
Suggestion: Bet on NEC Nijmegen to win, as they play at their usual stadium where they show better offensive performance and match control; additionally, they have extra motivation to recover after recent poor results.
The calculated expected value is positive (~+4%), confirming this as a smart bet 🎯⚽️
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Analysis from NEC x FC Groningen for the Netherlands Eredivisie – 9 of November
🏟️ NEC X FC Groningen – Netherlands Eredivisie
📅 9 of November, 2025 – 13:30
🔵 NEC – Winning probability: 53.00% | Fair line: 1.89
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 32.47% | Fair line: 3.08
🔴 FC Groningen – Winning probability: 14.53% | Fair line: 6.88
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 NEC
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks
When the best bet on NEC x FC Groningen is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1434498 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Latest news on the match between NEC and FC Groningen
NEC Nijmegen: NEC Nijmegen is currently mid-table in the Eredivisie 2025-26 after 11 matches, with a record of four wins, three draws, and four losses, a goal difference of +7, and 15 points; recent performance has been poor, highlighted by a 5-0 defeat to Excelsior at the start of August and a 1-0 loss to FC Utrecht on November 2nd, while the clubs next league match is scheduled for April 11, 2025, against RKC Waalwijk, and in the KNVB Cup they were drawn to face amateur team AFC in the second round.
FC Groningen: FC Groningen recently drew 1-1 with FC Twente at Euroborg after conceding a goal at 49 minutes from Kristian Hlynsson, in a match that followed a period of good form which led the club to be described as “flying high” in the last rounds of the Eredivisie; the next match is scheduled for December 13, 2025, when they will face Excelsior in the KNVB Cup, and midfielder Thijmen Blokzijl received a 5.6 rating on Sofascore in the previous 5-2 defeat to Sparta Rotterdam.
Table analysis for the match between NEC x FC Groningen
NEC: NEC is in 8th place with 15 points, trying to establish itself in the playoff zone for qualification in international competitions. Although somewhat distant from the top positions, a victory in this game could help the team get closer to the top teams and strengthen its chances of fighting for a playoff spot. This match is important for NEC to keep its aspirations alive in this stage of the championship. ⚽🔥
FC Groningen: FC Groningen is in 5th place with 19 points, holding a comfortable spot in the qualification playoffs for European tournaments. Maintaining positive results at this stage is crucial to ensure retention or even improve its position, which could mean a direct spot or a better position for qualification. Therefore, this matchup is very relevant for FC Groningen to stay firm in its fight for international competitions. 🌟💪
Summary: The game is important for both teams: NEC seeks to approach qualification positions, and FC Groningen wants to consolidate its spot and potentially climb the table. A match that promises excitement and has a direct impact on the fight for spots in continental competitions! ⚔️🏆
Tips for the Match Odds market for NEC x FC Groningen
Is it worth betting on NEC?
🔵 NEC: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 53.0% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.91. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 530 times – this would give you a profit of $482.30
- And would have lost other 470 times – with a loss of -$470.00 because of them.
It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$12.30. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 32.47% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $864.00
- And would have lost other 680 times – with a loss of -$680.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$184.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on FC Groningen?
🔴 FC Groningen: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 14.53% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 150 times – this would give you a profit of $390.00
- And would lose other 850 times – losing -$850.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$460.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match NEC x FC Groningen
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 NEC
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for NEC x FC Groningen
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 NEC, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 NEC.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for NEC x FC Groningen
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.
