Aston Villa x Maccabi Tel Aviv Betting tips for November 6 in UEFA Europa League
| 📅 6/11/2025 20:00 |
 Aston Villa1.22 |
X 6.31 |
Maccabi Tel Aviv  11.50 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Aston Villa x Maccabi Tel Aviv:
🔮 Aston Villa wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Aston Villa, you can win up to $610.00!
The main points for the tip for Aston Villa x Maccabi Tel Aviv:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Aston Villa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $547.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Maccabi Tel Aviv in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-125.0.
👉 Maccabi Tel Aviv did not concede a goal in the last 4 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Aston Villa scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Maccabi Tel Aviv matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 Aston Villa is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 In the last 5 road matches, Maccabi Tel Aviv has not lost any of them.
🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Aston Villa vs Maccabi Tel Aviv:
Lets analyze the match between Aston Villa and Maccabi Tel Aviv at Villa Park stadium, which has been the true home of Aston Villa since 1897, giving the home team a natural advantage of playing on their turf with strong fan support. 🏟️
📈 Aston Villa has been showing strength playing at home, with 4 wins and only 1 loss in their last 5 games at their stadium, averaging 1.4 goals per game and conceding about 1 goal per match. They maintain a reasonable balance in possession (51%) and shots (12 per game), indicating moderate control of the matches.
On the other hand, Maccabi Tel Aviv has an impressive away record in recent European season: unbeaten in the last five away games (3 wins and 2 draws), scoring many goals (average of 2 per game) and conceding very few defensively (0.2 goals conceded). However, in their local league they have faced recent difficulties with losses and few goals scored.
The median odds analysis shows a clear favoritism for Aston Villa: average odds for Villas victory are around 1.22 against absurd values above 6 for a draw or Maccabi win. After normalizing the implicit probabilities of these odds, we get something close to:
- Aston Villa Win: ~75%
- Draw: ~15%
- Maccabi Tel Aviv Win: ~10%
However, our internal model shows highly biased probabilities for the home team win (~97%), practically ruling out a draw or visitor win — an exaggerated estimate given the balanced statistical data, especially in the visitors attack.
Analyzing the fair odds adjusted considering recent team statistics and news:
- Aston Villa has a good chance due to their strong home offense combined with European experience;
- Maccabi might surprise if they exploit their offensive efficiency away;
- A draw is not so unlikely given the defensive solidity of the visitors;
Thus, I would estimate fair odds closer to:
- Aston Villa: ~1.35
- Draw: ~4.5
- Maccabi Tel Aviv: ~7-8
The expected value calculation using the final odds indicated by the market suggests that betting on Aston Villa offers a significant positive value (+19% EV according to the model), while a draw or visitor win do not present attractive expected value.
However, it is worth highlighting some important news 📰:
Aston Villa suffered a recent defeat against Liverpool but remains confident; there is concern about an important injury but a substitute is available.
Maccabi faces severe restrictions regarding visiting fans due to security issues — this could negatively impact their away performance.
Additionally, the intense European schedule may weigh more on the Israeli visitors.
Therefore, my recommendation is to follow the safe bet on Aston Villa straight win, as besides the favorable statistics, external factors such as strong home advantage in a historic stadium and the absence of the opposing crowd positively influence the English team.
This bet has an estimated positive expected value over +15%, confirming it as a good opportunity! 💰⚽️
Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Aston Villa x Maccabi Tel Aviv?
If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Aston Villa x Maccabi Tel Aviv, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:
Analysis from Aston Villa x Maccabi Tel Aviv for the UEFA Europa League – 6 of November
🏟️ Aston Villa X Maccabi Tel Aviv – UEFA Europa League
📅 6 of November, 2025 – 20:00
🔵 Aston Villa – Winning probability: 97.81% | Fair line: 1.02
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 1.44% | Fair line: 69.6
🔴 Maccabi Tel Aviv – Winning probability: 0.75% | Fair line: 133.07
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Aston Villa
⚽ Expected goals: 3.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
When the best bet on Aston Villa x Maccabi Tel Aviv is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1433555 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Latest news on the match between Aston Villa and Maccabi Tel Aviv
Aston Villa: Aston Villa has been linked to a potential offer for Real Madrids young forward Endrick, with the club entering the race to sign him, while the main team suffered a 2-0 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield on November 1, 2025, prompting coach Unai Emery to defend his tactical choices after Mohamed Salah opened the scoring; Villa also faced an issue with Emi Buendías injury, who was substituted by Evann Guessand during the match, and Villas womens team played an exciting 3-3 draw against Everton in the Womens Super League on November 2, 2025.
Maccabi Tel Aviv: Maccabi Tel Aviv is in second place in the Israeli Premier League and faces an intense European schedule, having been drawn against Aston Villa in the Europa Conference League, during which over 700 police officers were mobilized and the club declined the ticket quota offered after the away fan ban for security reasons; their subsequent Europa League matches will see them host VfB Stuttgart, visit Olympique Lyonnais on November 27, 2025, at Gradski Stadion in Serbia, and later face SC Freiburg on January 22, 2026, in Freiburg, with forward Kervin Andrade participating in recent matches but yet to score.
Table analysis for the game between Aston Villa and Maccabi Tel Aviv
Aston Villa: The team is in 10th place on the table with 6 points, resulting from 2 wins and 1 loss. Being in the “Qualification Playoffs” zone, each point is crucial to try to improve the position and advance in the UEFA Europa League stages. The match against Maccabi Tel Aviv is important to keep the chance of qualifying for the decisive rounds of the competition alive, since the point gap between nearby teams is small and any result can influence the table.
Maccabi Tel Aviv: The team is in 32nd place, with 1 point and no wins, already accumulating 3 losses. This practically eliminates the teams chances of qualifying for the next phase, making this game against Aston Villa irrelevant to their objectives in the competition. Still, the team should try to improve its image and seek points to boost morale or avoid finishing last in the table.
Summary: The match is relevant for Aston Villa, which needs a victory to maintain its chances in the fight for qualification in the championship. For Maccabi Tel Aviv, the game has little competitive importance in the pursuit of advancement in the tournament. Therefore, it is an important game for only one of the teams.
Tips for the 1×2 market for Aston Villa x Maccabi Tel Aviv
Is it worth betting on Aston Villa?
🔵 Aston Villa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 97.81% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.22. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 980 times – profiting $215.60;
- And would have lost other 20 times – with a loss of -$20.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$195.60.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 1.44%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 6.31. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 10 times – this would give you a profit of $53.10
- And would lose other 990 times – losing -$990.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$936.90.
Is it worth betting on Maccabi Tel Aviv?
🔴 Maccabi Tel Aviv: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 0.75% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 11.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 10 times – this would give you a profit of $105.00
- And would have lost other 990 times – with a loss of -$990.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$885.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Aston Villa x Maccabi Tel Aviv
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Aston Villa
⚽ Expected goals: 3.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Aston Villa x Maccabi Tel Aviv
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.75 Aston Villa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.75 Aston Villa.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Aston Villa x Maccabi Tel Aviv
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.
