SK Sturm Graz x Nottm Forest Betting tips for November 6 in UEFA Europa League

Our betting tip for SK Sturm Graz x Nottm Forest, Thursday, 6/11/2025

📅 6/11/2025 17:45

SK Sturm Graz 4.54

X 3.80

Nottm Forest 1.70

Our algorithm has selected this tip for SK Sturm Graz x Nottm Forest:

🔮 Nottm Forest wins the match
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The main points for the tip for SK Sturm Graz x Nottm Forest:

👉 If you had bet $100 on SK Sturm Graz in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $105.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Nottm Forest in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, SK Sturm Graz scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Nottm Forest conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs Nottm Forest:

⚽ The match between SK Sturm Graz and Nottingham Forest in the UEFA Europa League promises to be an interesting duel, but with some important nuances to consider. The game will be held at Merkur Arena, which is not Sturm Grazs usual stadium, neutralizing a bit the home advantage for them. This already puts the teams in more balanced conditions.

📈 Analyzing recent statistics, Sturm Graz averages 1 goal scored and conceded per game at home, with good ball possession (59%) and a higher volume of shots (15 per game). However, their recent campaign shows mixed results with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last home games. Nottingham Forest struggles away: averaging 1 goal scored against 2 conceded per match as visitors, with only one win in their last five away games. Despite this, they have shown resilience by drawing tough matches recently.

📰 Recent news indicates Sturm Graz has been oscillating in the Austrian Bundesliga and is seeking to stabilize their performance to advance in the European competition; their key players are in good offensive form. Conversely, Nottingham Forest faces significant absences due to injuries — including key attackers — which could negatively impact their offensive power in this decisive match.

Considering the median odds offered by bookmakers (4.5 for Sturm Graz win; 3.8 for draw; 1.69 for Nottingham Forest win), we have approximate normalized implied probabilities: 22% for Sturm Graz win, 26% for draw, 52% for Nottingham Forest win. Given the neutrality of the arena and the visitors absences combined with the Austrian teams offensive strength playing “at home,” I would adjust these probabilities to be more balanced: about 30% for SK Sturm Graz victory, 30% for draw, and 40% for Nottingham Forest win.

Thus, fair odds would be approximately:

• Sturm Graz: ~3.33;
• Draw: ~3.33;
• Nottm Forest: ~2.50.

Comparing with the final odds, the current odds for the visitors victory are underestimated by the Bets Kenya model (which predicts a very low fair odd — around 1.27), while it overestimates the probability of the visiting team winning without considering important absences in their squad.

Analyzing the expected value of bets according to my adjusted calculation:

• Bet on SK Sturm Graz has a moderate positive EV (~10%) because I believe in a slight tactical advantage even when playing away;
• Bet on the draw may also have value (~5%) given the visitors defensive tendency;
• Bet on Nottingham Forests victory has a negative EV considering their current physical issues.

Final suggestion:
I would recommend betting on SK Sturm Graz or even a double chance favoring the Austrian team (win or draw) to take advantage of this high odds offered by the house despite the neutrality of the arena.
The Bets Kenya model seems to overvalue the visiting teams favoritism without properly reflecting external factors like neutral ground and relevant injuries.
Therefore, my bet is 🟢“Win or Draw” for SK Sturm Graz, taking advantage of an estimated positive expected value above 5%. 🎯💰

Good luck! 🍀⚽️ #Bets #EuropaLeague #SturmGrazVsForest #PositiveExpectedValue

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Analysis from SK Sturm Graz x Nottm Forest for the UEFA Europa League – 6 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between SK Sturm Graz and Nottm Forest.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1433555 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news about SK Sturm Graz x Nottm Forest

SK Sturm Graz: SK Sturm Graz is competing in the Austrian Bundesliga 2025-26 and is halfway up the table after a mixed run of results, including a 2-1 loss to Vienna on November 2, a 3-1 defeat to Wolfsberg on October 26, a narrow 2-1 loss in the Europa League to Celje on October 23, and an exciting 4-3 victory over Wiener Bürgla on October 19; the teams key players this season include midfielder Otar Kiteishvili, with nine goals and seven assists in nine games, forward Tochi Phil Chukwuani, with 13 goals and three assists in ten matches, and Jon Gorenc Stanković, who brings creativity from midfield, while goalkeeper Oliver Christensen has kept nine clean sheets in nine matches; Sturms next league challenge is against RB Salzburg, and they also have an OFB Cup match against Admira Wacker on October 29, aiming to stabilize form and fight for a spot in European competition.

Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest is dealing with several injuries, with striker Chris Wood out of Saturdays match against Manchester United and likely also absent in the next league game, while midfielder Oleksandr Zinchenko remains unavailable and his return seems delayed; on the field, the team drew 2-2 with Manchester United on November 1, 2025, a match that featured a late goal by Amad Diallo and a penalty converted by Morgan Gibbs-White, but was marred by a controversial goal from a corner for United, prompting Forest coach Sean Dyche to publicly call for changes in VAR procedures after two consecutive dubious decisions.

Table analysis for the match between SK Sturm Graz x Nottm Forest

SK Sturm Graz: SK Sturm Graz is in 27th place with only 3 points and a negative goal difference. Since the table shows a continental format championship, their current position indicates they are far behind the playoff spots or higher qualification rounds. Therefore, the match against Nottm Forest, also near the bottom of the table, is important to try to improve their performance and points, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the final standings for major tournaments. The game is a vital opportunity to seek recovery and avoid an even worse campaign.

Nottm Forest: Nottm Forest is slightly better than the opponent, in 17th place with 4 points, but still far from the qualification spots for advanced rounds. Given that the team has few points and is in the lower part of the table, the match against SK Sturm Graz is important to maintain hope of improving their position and securing at least a playoff or qualification spot. A positive result could pave the way to catch up with teams ahead, making the game relevant to their remaining ambitions.

Summary: The confrontation is important for both teams, which are in unfavorable positions and seek points to improve their rankings in a high-level championship. Although title chances are remote for these clubs, the game could be decisive in fighting for spots in future phases and avoiding a frustrating campaign. ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for SK Sturm Graz x Nottm Forest

Should you bet on SK Sturm Graz?

🔵 SK Sturm Graz: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 12.34%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.54. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 120 times – this would give you a profit of $424.80
• And would lose other 880 times – losing -$880.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$455.20.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 9.16%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 90 times – having a profit of $252.00;
• And would lose other 910 times – losing -$910.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$658.00.

Should you bet on Nottm Forest?

🔴 Nottm Forest: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 78.5%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 780 times – this would give you a profit of $546.00
• And would lose other 220 times – losing -$220.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$326.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match SK Sturm Graz x Nottm Forest

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 SK Sturm Graz
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for SK Sturm Graz x Nottm Forest

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.75 SK Sturm Graz and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.75 SK Sturm Graz.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for SK Sturm Graz x Nottm Forest

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.