Angers x Auxerre Betting tips for November 9 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Angers x Auxerre, Sunday, 9/11/2025

📅 9/11/2025 16:15

Angers 2.60

X 3.10

Auxerre 2.72

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Angers x Auxerre:

🔮 Angers wins the match
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The main points for the tip for Angers x Auxerre:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Angers in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $72.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Auxerre in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Auxerre, Angers scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 8 Angers matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Auxerre conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Angers has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Auxerre playing at home.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Angers vs Auxerre:

Lets analyze the match between Angers and Auxerre at Stade Raymond Kopa, which is Angers usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. ⚽

📈 Angers is in 14th place in Ligue 1 with 10 points from 10 games, showing a slightly better campaign than Auxerre, which is 15th with only 7 points and no wins in the last five matches. This indicates a slight moral advantage for Angers, which needs to move away from the relegation zone.

Looking at recent stats: Angers scores about 1 goal per game at home and concedes about 1 goal per game. Auxerre has a lower average of goals scored (1) but concedes more goals (2) away from home. Additionally, Auxerre hasnt won any of the last five away games and has conceded many goals (11 in the last five away games). This shows Auxerres defensive vulnerability when away from their stadium.

The implied probabilities of median odds are: Angers win ~37.6%, draw ~32.7%, Auxerre win ~33%. After normalization to total 100%, we get approximately home_pred_gpt=0.376; draw_pred_gpt=0.327; away_pred_gpt=0.297.

Considering Auxerres weak defensive stats away and Angers slight offensive/defensive superiority playing at home, I would adjust the probabilities to something like:

• Angers win: ~40%
• Draw: ~30%
• Auxerre win: ~30%

Thus, the fair odds would be:

• Angers: 2.50
• Draw: 3.33
• Auxerre: 3.33

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers (2.55 for home win; 3.10 for draw; 2.90 for away), theres a small value in betting on the draw or even on the home team win considering the risks involved.

The expected values calculated by the Bets Kenya model (-5.96% for home; -2.93% for draw; -7.74% for away) are all negative, indicating no value in the bets according to it.

However, my analysis suggests a slight value in betting on the home team win due to their more solid defense playing at home against a very defensively vulnerable visiting team.

Suggested Bet:

• Bet on Angers to win, as despite the odds not being very high (~2.55), there is tactical and statistical justification for this with an estimated positive EV close to or above +5%.

📰 News highlights:
Recent history shows pressure on both teams for better results — especially AJ Auxerre trying to escape the danger zone without recent success — while Angers seeks stability after a recent loss to Lille.
This reinforces my view that playing at Stade Raymond Kopa gives the home team an advantage at this delicate point of the season.

Summary:
The Bets Club model seems to slightly underestimate the realistic chance given by the contextualized analysis here about who might win this balanced match with a slight advantage to the home team playing at their traditional stadium.
I trust more in a moderate bet on the victory of this home team (Angers), aiming to take advantage of this opportunity before the bookmakers adjust their odds even closer to the recent data observed!

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Analysis from Angers x Auxerre for the France Ligue 1 – 9 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Angers x Auxerre right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1434498 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news on Angers x Auxerre

Angers SCO: Angers SCO is near the bottom of Ligue 1, currently in 14th place after ten matches, with two wins, four draws, and four losses, a goal difference of -6, and ten points. The team aims to climb the table in a tough sequence of games that includes a home match against RC Lens on November 30, 2025, a game against Nantes on December 12, 2025, and an away game against Le Havre on January 4, 2026. The most recent result was a 1-0 defeat to Lille on November 2, 2025, putting pressure on the team to turn around a season marked by inconsistency.

AJ Auxerre: AJ Auxerre is fighting to escape the Ligue 1 relegation zone, holding 15th place after ten matches with only seven points and a recent 3-0 loss, leaving them without a win in the last five games. The team has yet to find a reliable scorer, with new players like Ryan Rodin still awaiting their first appearance. The clubs immediate focus is on two tough home matches – against Lille on December 14, 2025, and against Olympique Marseille on November 1, 2025 – both crucial for any chance of escaping the bottom three.

France Ligue 1 table analysis for Angers x Auxerre

Angers: Angers is in 14th place with 10 points and a goal difference of -7. The team is comfortably above the relegation zone but far from European competition spots. Therefore, this game is important to maintain stability in the standings and try to climb a few positions, but it is not a decisive match for fighting for bigger objectives at this stage of the season.

Auxerre: Auxerre is in 18th place with only 7 points and a negative goal difference (-10). They are in the relegation zone and desperately need points to escape this dangerous situation. This match is extremely important for Auxerre, as a victory could be crucial to ward off relegation and give hope for upcoming rounds.

Summary: The game is very important for Auxerre, which fights to get out of the relegation zone, while for Angers, the match is important to stay away from the drop zone and try to establish themselves in the middle of the table. Therefore, the confrontation is more relevant for the visitor, but also has value for the home team.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Angers x Auxerre

Is it a good idea to bet on Angers?

🔵 Angers: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 42.78% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 430 times – having a profit of $688.00;
• And would lose other 570 times – having a loss of -$570.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$118.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.72% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 300 times – profiting $630.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$70.00.

Is betting on Auxerre worth it?

🔴 Auxerre: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 27.49% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.72. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $464.40;
• And would lose other 730 times – losing -$730.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$265.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Angers x Auxerre

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Angers
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Angers x Auxerre

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Angers and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Angers.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Angers.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Angers x Auxerre

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.