Lyon x PSG Betting tips for November 9 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Lyon x PSG, Sunday, 9/11/2025

📅 9/11/2025 19:45

Lyon 4.30

X 4.10

PSG 1.70

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Lyon x PSG:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Lyon x PSG

Some important points for the tip for Lyon x PSG:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Lyon in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $144.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on PSG in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $208.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Lyon scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, PSG scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against PSG, Lyon scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Lyon x PSG, with Lyon as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Playing as the home team, Lyon conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against PSG.
👉 PSG is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 4 away matches, it had at least 63.00% of possession.
👉 In the last 5 road matches, PSG has not lost any of them.
👉 Even as a visitor, PSG won the last 4 head-to-head matches Lyon´s territory

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Lyon vs PSG:

The match between Lyon and PSG at Groupama Stadium promises to be electrifying! 🏟️ The stadium is Lyons official home, giving the team a natural advantage of playing on their turf. Looking at recent stats, Lyon has a solid home record with 4 wins and only 1 loss in the last 5 games, averaging 1.6 goals per match and conceding just 0.6 goals. PSG, on the other hand, shows impressive away numbers: unbeaten in the last 5 games with an average of nearly 3 goals scored per game and less than one goal conceded.

📈 In the Ligue 1 table, PSG leads with a slight edge over Marseille and Lens, showing pressure to maintain the lead in upcoming tough matches against Lyon, Monaco, and Lille. Lyon is close to sixth place, aiming to secure a spot at the top of the table for European competitions.

📰 News indicates both teams face injury issues: Lyon has lost key players like Ernest Nuamah (attack) and Orel Mangala (defense), while PSG is missing Achraf Hakimi (right-back) and Ousmane Dembélé (winger). This could balance the forces on the field despite PSGs favoritism.

Analyzing the median odds adjusted for house margins:

• Fair probability of Lyon victory: ~20%
• Fair probability of a draw: ~22%
• Fair probability of PSG victory: ~58%

Considering statistical fair odds, PSGs win is more likely due to their potent attack even away from home; however, Lyons recent defensive solidity combined with PSGs absences could increase the chances of a draw or even a home surprise.

Looking at the expected value in final odds:

• Valuable bet on the visitor (PSG) with a positive EV above 5%, confirming the good risk-return ratio given their offensive strength;
• Bets on a draw or Lyon win show a negative EV according to our model;

Final suggestion: Betting on Paris Saint-Germains victory offers greater security given the current form of the teams despite injuries. The final odds close to 1.85 provide good value relative to the estimated probability (~58%).

Always remember that football is unpredictable! But here we have solid data to support this bet 😉⚽️

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Lyon x PSG?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2025. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Lyon x PSG for the France Ligue 1 – 9 of November

When the best bet on Lyon x PSG is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1434498 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news on Lyon x PSG

Lyon: Lyon is currently dealing with a series of injuries, highlighting forward Ernest Nuamah and defender Orel Mangala, both sidelined due to anterior cruciate ligament injuries. Midfielder Malick Fofana is also out with an ankle sprain. Martin Satriano has been positioned as a forward, while Corentin Tolisso takes on creative responsibilities in midfield. The team has been impressive in the Europa League – undefeated, with nine points, five goals scored and none conceded, winning 1-0 against Utrecht with a late goal from Tanner Tessmann, along with 2-0 victories over Red Bull Salzburg and Basel (with goals from Tolisso and Afonso Moreira). In Ligue 1, they are around sixth place, with upcoming matches including a duel against Paris Saint-Germain. The transfer market has speculated about a possible short-term loan of Real Madrid’s Endrick to Lyon, with advanced negotiations, but the deal is unlikely to include an option to buy.

Paris Saint-Germain: Paris Saint-Germain currently leads Ligue 1, but the advantage has dropped to just two points over Marseille and Lens after a series of draws against Lille, Lorient, and Strasbourg. Over the next seven weeks, they will face a tough sequence of matches against Lyon, Monaco, and Lille. The squad suffered a double injury blow: right-back Achraf Hakimi will be out for up to six weeks after a tackle, and winger Ousmane Dembélé is sidelined due to a muscular issue. These absences prompted coach Luis Enrique to restructure the team ahead of the Champions League clash against Bayern Munich, a match the coach says PSG is confident to win despite Bayern’s 15-match winning streak. The club is also monitoring Barcelona defender Eric Garcia’s situation as a potential January signing to reinforce and tactically balance the defensive line, which has been pressured by recent injuries.

Table analysis for the match between Lyon x PSG

Lyon: Lyon is in 6th place with 20 points, tied with the 4th and 5th placed teams, but behind in goal difference. They are in the qualification zone for the Conference League, but very close to the better spots (Champions League and Europa League). This match against the leader PSG is an important opportunity for Lyon to catch up with the top teams and improve their position in the table, which could impact European competitions next season. Therefore, it is a very relevant matchup to try to climb the standings.

PSG: PSG leads Ligue 1 with 24 points, 2 points ahead of their immediate rivals. As leaders, the match against Lyon is crucial to maintain the advantage and stay firmly in the title race. A victory reinforces their leadership and makes it harder for opponents to catch up. So, for PSG, this game is decisive to stay at the top of the table and continue on the path to the title.

Summary: The matchup is important for both teams — for PSG to maintain the lead and for Lyon to close the gap to the top positions and improve their chances of qualifying for European competitions. A well-contested duel with a lot at stake! ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Lyon x PSG

Is betting on Lyon worth it?

🔵 Lyon: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 18.78%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $627.00;
• And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$183.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.66% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 220 times – profiting $682.00;
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$98.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on PSG?

🔴 PSG: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 59.57% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 600 times – this would give you a profit of $420.00
• And would lose other 400 times – having a loss of -$400.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$20.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Handicaps analysis for the match Lyon x PSG

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Lyon
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lyon x PSG

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 Lyon, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Lyon.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Lyon.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lyon x PSG

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.25 goals.