Atalanta x Sassuolo Betting tips for November 9 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Atalanta x Sassuolo, Sunday, 9/11/2025

📅 9/11/2025 11:30

Atalanta 1.44

X 4.62

Sassuolo 6.50

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Atalanta x Sassuolo:

🔮 Atalanta wins the match
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Important information for your tip for Atalanta x Sassuolo:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-315.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Sassuolo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $110.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Sassuolo, Atalanta scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 Atalanta matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Atalanta x Sassuolo, with Atalanta as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 road matches, Sassuolo has not lost any of them.
👉 Atalanta has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Sassuolo.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Atalanta vs Sassuolo:

Lets analyze the match between Atalanta and Sassuolo at Gewiss Stadium, the true home of Atalanta, which has a capacity of about 26,500 fans and often plays a significant role in the teams performance.

📈 Table analysis: Atalanta is in 8th place with an irregular start to the season, accumulating many draws (7) and few wins (2) in recent games. Sassuolo was in good form with 10 points in the last five matches before a recent defeat. This shows that Atalanta desperately needs the three points to climb the table and improve their performance, while Sassuolo aims to maintain their good streak to try to reach European spots.

📰 News: Atalanta faces pressure on coach Ivan Juric after mixed results but maintains internal confidence in his work. The team has good offensive players like Lookman and De Ketelaere who can make a difference at home. Sassuolo has experienced veterans like Berardi along with young talents Pinamonti and Laurienté, but needs to avoid slips to not lose ground in the fight for European qualification.

Statistical analysis:

• The average goals scored by Atalanta at home is 0.8 (4 goals/5 games), conceding 0.6 goals per game; Sassuolo outside has an average of 0.8 goals but has conceded more (1.2 goals per game).
• Ball possession clearly favors Atalanta (54% vs 43%), as do total shots (18 vs 10) and corners (7 vs 4), indicating greater control of the game by the home team.
• However, Atalantas recent draws indicate difficulty in converting dominance into wins — four draws in their last five home games.

Calculations of fair odds normalized by median odds:

• Implicit probabilities: home win ≈69%, draw ≈22%, away win ≈15%
• Adjusting for bookmaker margins: home win ≈63%, draw ≈20%, away win ≈14%.

Calculations of fair odds based on combined analysis:

• Given Atalantas statistical dominance but recent frequent draws combined with Sassuolos good away form — fair odds for Atalantas victory are around @1.55;
• Draw is possible due to recent history (@3.9);
• Sassuolo could surprise but the chances are lower (@6.5).

Betting model analysis from Clube da Aposta:

– The model indicates very low odds for Atalantas victory (@1.20), suggesting a high probability (>80%) — perhaps underestimating their recent many draws;

– Too high odds for a draw (@8.28) and away win (@21), indicating low chances for these outcomes according to the model;

– Positive expected value only on the bet for the home win (+20%), ignoring potential value in other options.

Our view diverges slightly: despite the clear favoritism for the home team due to the strong home advantage at Gewiss Stadium 🏟️, we believe the real probabilities are more balanced because of their recent history full of draws 🤝. Therefore, exercise caution with very low bets (<1.30) on Atalantas victory as it may not reflect all the risks involved in this competitive match!

Final suggestion: bet moderately on Atalantas victory, aiming for odds above @1.50 if possible; avoid risky bets on the draw or away win given the low expected value calculated here (<5%).

Looking for another bookie to bet on Atalanta x Sassuolo?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2025, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Atalanta x Sassuolo:

Analysis from Atalanta x Sassuolo for the Italy Serie A – 9 of November

When the best bet on Atalanta x Sassuolo is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1434498 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on Atalanta x Sassuolo

Atalanta: Atalanta, led by Ivan Juric, is currently eighth in Serie A after a mixed start to the 2025-26 season, with seven draws, two wins, and a recent 1-0 defeat to Udinese on November 1st, prompting Juric to admit that the team was “missing everything” in rhythm, technique, and intensity; despite the setback, the squad remains competitive in the Champions League, having secured a 1-0 victory over Olympique de Marseille at the Velodrome on November 5th thanks to Lazar Samardžićs goal, while Ademola Lookman and Charles De Ketelaere continue to be key in attack, and speculation about Jurics future has intensified, with betting houses offering odds on his potential dismissal, as the club seeks to turn its solid defensive core — including Djimsiti, Zappacosta, De Roon, and Pašalić — into a more consistent team to win matches and fight for a playoff spot.

Sassuolo: Sassuolo, managed by former Italy defender Fabio Grosso, entered November 2025 in good form, having earned ten points in the previous five league games and hovering just outside the Europa League spots, but the momentum was halted on November 3rd with a 2-1 home defeat to Genoa, despite a team featuring veteran striker Domenico Berardi alongside emerging trio Pinamonti, Laurienté, and Vranckx; Grosso praised the teams dedication and warned against complacency, emphasizing that the squad must maintain intensity to climb the table, while the club continues to rely on a mix of experienced forwards and young talents like Muric and Koné to seek a better position in Serie A.

Italy Serie A table analysis for Atalanta x Sassuolo

Atalanta: Atalanta is currently in 11th place with 13 points, just 5 points behind the 6th place team, Juventus, which is in the Conference League qualifying zone. With the season still ongoing (round 10 of a likely longer total), this match presents a good opportunity for the team to climb closer to the top of the table and approach the race for European spots. Therefore, the game is of significant importance for Atalanta, which needs to react to improve its position.

Sassuolo: Sassuolo is in 12th place, just behind Atalanta, also with 13 points, and with a slightly negative goal difference. The proximity in the standings indicates that the confrontation is direct and vital to distance themselves from the more challenging part of the competition, avoiding the risk of relegation or dropping to lower positions, and still maintaining chances to reach international competitions later in the season. Thus, for Sassuolo, the match is quite relevant in the fight to stay in the league and improve their standing.

Summary: The match between Atalanta and Sassuolo is important for both teams, as it is a direct confrontation between squads fighting to climb the table and escape from mid to lower positions, seeking opportunities to access European competitions. It will be a competitive duel with considerable impact for both teams.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Atalanta x Sassuolo

Is it a good idea to bet on Atalanta?

🔵 Atalanta: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 80.22%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.44. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 800 times – this would give you a profit of $352.00
• And would lose other 200 times – losing -$200.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$152.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 15.96% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.62. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 160 times – this would give you a profit of $579.20
• And would have lost other 840 times – with a loss of -$840.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$260.80.

Should you bet on Sassuolo?

🔴 Sassuolo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 3.82%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 6.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 40 times – this would give you a profit of $220.00
• And would lose other 960 times – losing -$960.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$740.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atalanta x Sassuolo

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Atalanta
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atalanta x Sassuolo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.25 Atalanta, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Atalanta.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atalanta x Sassuolo

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.