Bologna x Napoli Betting tips for November 9 in Italy Serie A
| 📅 9/11/2025 14:00 |
 Bologna3.00 |
X 3.00 |
Napoli  2.50 |
This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Bologna x Napoli:
🔮 Bologna wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Bologna, you can win up to $1500.00!
Some important points for the tip for Bologna x Napoli:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Bologna in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-140.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-345.0.
👉 Bologna did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team.
👉 Bologna has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Napoli playing at home.
🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for Bologna vs Napoli:
⚽ The match between Bologna and Napoli promises to be quite balanced, but with important nuances for betting analysis. Bologna comes from a very good phase, occupying third place in Serie A and with an undefeated streak of six games, including recent wins that show a confident and offensive team (average of 1 goal per game at home). Additionally, Renato DallAra is a stadium where Bologna performs well defensively (only 2 goals conceded in the last 5 home games) and controls the game (62% possession). Napoli, on the other hand, leads the table and maintains a strong undefeated streak at home last season, but has recently struggled to score goals — averaging only 1 goal away with a more vulnerable defense (2 goals conceded per away match).
📈 In the table, this match is crucial: Bologna wants to get even closer to leader Napoli to maintain their good campaign; Napoli needs to keep the lead against a direct rival. This increases the pressure on both teams to seek a positive result.
📰 The news reinforce this scenario: Bologna is riding a good streak and plays at their traditional stadium Renato DallAra, with players like Santiago Castro in top form; Napoli suffers from recent offensive problems and important absences like Romelu Lukaku. This could directly impact the visiting teams performance.
Analyzing the adjusted median odds by the house margin: fair probabilities are close to a 38% win for the visitor, 31% for a draw, and 31% for the home team. But considering detailed statistics — especially Bolognas strong defensive performance at home against Napolis weakened attack — I see more value in betting on Bolognas victory. The final odds indicate around 2.9 for the home team win, which seems to offer fair or slightly positive value given the current scenario.
The Bets Kenya model suggests small value in betting on Bologna, I fully agree! I believe this is the best option here 🤑. I would avoid betting on a draw or Napolis win due to their recent low offensive efficiency away from home.
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Analysis from Bologna x Napoli for the Italy Serie A – 9 of November
🏟️ Bologna X Napoli – Italy Serie A
📅 9 of November, 2025 – 14:00
🔵 Bologna – Winning probability: 36.58% | Fair line: 2.73
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 31.57% | Fair line: 3.17
🔴 Napoli – Winning probability: 31.85% | Fair line: 3.14
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Bologna
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 8.75 corner kicks
When the best bet on Bologna x Napoli is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1434498 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Latest news about Bologna x Napoli
Bologna: Bologna is enjoying a strong phase in both Serie A and the Europa League, holding third place in the league after five matches, just four points behind leaders Napoli, having won three of their last five home games; they extended their unbeaten streak to six matches with a 3-1 victory over Parma on November 2, when Santiago Castro scored two goals, Bernabè added one, and Miranda also scored, while the clubs English signing for 20 million euros, Jonathan Rowe, has yet to score; in Europe, Rossoblù drew 0-0 with Norwegian team Brann at Dall’Ara on November 6, a result following previous Europa League wins against Freiburg and Steaua, and Castros recent form has even sparked speculation about his call-up to the Argentine national team.
Napoli: Napoli, under Antonio Conte, remains at the top of Serie A and has maintained its strong home performance, extending an unbeaten run at Diego Maradona Stadium to 15 matches, with three draws and 12 wins, but has recently struggled to score goals, drawing 0-0 against Como on November 1 and against Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League on November 4, highlighting a persistent goal-scoring problem despite controlling 77% of possession; the squad features Milinković-Savić in goal, a defensive line formed by Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno, and Spinazzola, a midfield with Anguissa, Gilmour, and McTominay, and an attack led by Højlund, Politano, and Neres, while long-term goalkeeper Meret remains sidelined, Romelu Lukaku is still recovering from a serious injury, and the team prepares for upcoming matches including a Serie A clash against Fiorentina and future Champions League challenges.
Table analysis for the match between Bologna and Napoli
Bologna: Bologna is in 5th place with 18 points, securing a spot in the UEFA Europa League so far. The match against Napoli is very important for them to maintain this position or even try to move up the table, as they are relatively close to the leaders in the championship and the rounds still allow significant changes. Beating Napoli, who is a direct rival at the top, can consolidate their position in international competitions and give a boost in the final stretch.
Napoli: Leader of the championship with 22 points, Napoli has the chance in this match to extend their lead and start to distance themselves from direct competitors like Inter Milan and AC Milan. The importance is high to keep the top spot and approach the title. A positive result reinforces their favorite status and increases control in this decisive phase of Serie A.
Summary: This matchup is very important for both teams: for Napoli, it’s essential to maintain the lead and pursue the title; for Bologna, it’s a crucial opportunity to secure and strengthen their spot in European competitions. A game that promises to be competitive and decisive! ⚽🔥
Tips for the Match Odds market for Bologna x Napoli
Should you bet on Bologna?
🔵 Bologna: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 36.58%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 370 times – this would give you a profit of $740.00
- And would lose other 630 times – having a loss of -$630.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$110.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 31.57%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $640.00
- And would lose other 680 times – having a loss of -$680.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$40.00.
Should you bet on Napoli?
🔴 Napoli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 31.85%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 320 times – profiting $480.00;
- And would lose other 680 times – having a loss of -$680.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$200.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Bologna x Napoli
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Bologna
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Bologna x Napoli
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Bologna and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Bologna.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Bologna.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Bologna x Napoli
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.
