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Home » Predictions » Italy Serie A » Bologna x Roma Betting tips for January 12 in Italy Serie A
Sunday, 12 January 2025, 17h00 Italy Serie A
Bologna Bologna
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 35% 1 X 2
Roma Roma
ODD: @3.22 Don't miss this prediction!

Bologna x Roma Betting tips for January 12 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Bologna x Roma, Sunday, 12/1/2025
📅 12/1/2025
17:00
Bologna Bologna
2.70
X
3.22
Roma Roma
2.64

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Bologna x Roma:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1610.00!

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Important information for your tip for Bologna x Roma:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Bologna in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $125.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Bologna scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Bologna x Roma, with Bologna as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Roma conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Bologna has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Roma playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Bologna x Roma for the Italy Serie A – 12 of January

🏟️ Bologna X Roma – Italy Serie A
📅 12 of January, 2025 – 17:00
🔵 Bologna – Winning probability: 30.37% | Fair line: 3.29
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 35.22% | Fair line: 2.84
🔴 Roma – Winning probability: 34.41% | Fair line: 2.91
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Bologna
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

When the best bet on Bologna x Roma is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1244844 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Bologna x Roma

Is it worth betting on Bologna?

🔵 Bologna: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 30.37% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $510.00;
  • And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$190.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 35.22% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.22. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 350 times – profiting $777.00;
  • And would have lost other 650 times – with a loss of -$650.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$127.00.

Is it worth betting on Roma?

🔴 Roma: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 34.41% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.64. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 340 times – this would give you a profit of $557.60
  • And would lose other 660 times – having a loss of -$660.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$102.40.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Bologna x Roma

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Bologna
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Bologna x Roma

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Bologna and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Bologna.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Bologna.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Bologna x Roma

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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