Empoli x Fiorentina Betting tips for September 29 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Empoli x Fiorentina, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 13:00

Empoli 3.30

X 3.27

Fiorentina 2.20

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Empoli x Fiorentina:

🔮 Fiorentina wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fiorentina, you can win up to $1100.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Empoli x Fiorentina: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Empoli in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-205.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Fiorentina in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-382.0. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Fiorentina scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 9 matches as the away team, Fiorentina conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Empoli has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Fiorentina playing at home.

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Empoli x Fiorentina?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Empoli x Fiorentina, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2024. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Empoli x Fiorentina for the Italy Serie A – 29 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Empoli x Fiorentina right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1190630 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Empoli x Fiorentina

Is betting on Empoli worth it?

🔵 Empoli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.83%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $575.00;
• And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$175.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.05%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.27. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 260 times – profiting $590.20;
• And would lose other 740 times – having a loss of -$740.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$149.80.

Is it worth betting on Fiorentina?

🔴 Fiorentina: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 49.12% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 490 times – this would give you a profit of $588.00
• And would lose other 510 times – losing -$510.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$78.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Empoli x Fiorentina

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Empoli
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Empoli x Fiorentina

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Empoli, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Empoli.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Fiorentina.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Empoli x Fiorentina

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.