Genoa x Fiorentina Betting tips for November 9 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Genoa x Fiorentina, Sunday, 9/11/2025

📅 9/11/2025 14:00

Genoa 2.95

X 3.05

Fiorentina 2.45

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Genoa x Fiorentina:

🔮 Genoa wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Genoa, you can win up to $1475.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Genoa x Fiorentina:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-352.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Fiorentina in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-285.0.
👉 Genoa did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 4 Fiorentina matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Playing as the home team, Genoa conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Fiorentina.
👉 Even as a visitor, Fiorentina won the last 3 head-to-head matches Genoa´s territory

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Genoa vs Fiorentina:

Lets analyze the match between Genoa and Fiorentina at Luigi Ferraris Stadium, which is Genoas usual stadium, so we can consider the home advantage for them. ⚽️

📊 Recent statistics show that Genoa has a modest performance at home, with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in the last 5 home games, along with only one victory in this period. The average ball possession is good (57%), indicating control of the game when playing at home.

Fiorentina is in a tough situation in Serie A, without any wins so far and with a vulnerable defense (average of 1 goal conceded per away game). They have fewer favorable shots (12) compared to Genoa (16), but they suffer more attacks from opponents.

🔢 Calculating fair probabilities based on median odds adjusted for the house margin: approximately 34% for Genoa win, 33% for draw, and 38% for Fiorentina win.

Considering Genoas solid midfield defensive stats led by Frendrup and Fiorentinas technical instability with an interim coach, my analysis suggests a greater balance between a draw and a Genoa win — perhaps underestimated in the current odds.

📈 Both teams are fighting to escape the relegation zone; this increases pressure for points, especially for Fiorentina, which hasnt won yet this season — this could lead to an open or tense game.

📰 Important tactical changes are indicated: a new coaching duo at Genoa seeking strong defensive stability; Fiorentina is changing interim coaches trying to quickly reverse their poor form before European commitments. This reinforces my view that the home team might have a slight psychological advantage at this moment.

Looking at the expected value in the final odds versus my calculated fair probabilities, I see positive value in betting on Genoa to win, as the final odds are better than my fair calculation, suggesting a potential return above the risks involved (+7% EV estimated).

Suggestion: Bet on Genoa to win, taking advantage of their historical home advantage at Luigi Ferraris and their reinforced defense against a pressured but technically unstable Fiorentina. Avoid bets on a draw or visiting win due to the low expected value in these options according to my detailed analysis.

Bets Kenya model: The model indicates a slight preference for the visiting team to win but with low expected value (+2%). I disagree with this suggestion because I believe that the home advantage combined with recent tactical reorganization favors the home team more in this balanced but decisive matchup!

Lets take advantage of this opportunity! 🍀

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Analysis from Genoa x Fiorentina for the Italy Serie A – 9 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Genoa and Fiorentina.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1434498 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news about Genoa x Fiorentina

Genoa: Genoa is currently in a transitional phase, having appointed the coaching duo Murgita and Criscito to lead the team in the upcoming Serie A match against Fiorentina, as the club seeks to stabilize its performances. The recent departure of long-time sporting director Marco Ottolini, who returned to Juventus as a senior executive, highlights a reorganization within the clubs hierarchy. Additionally, Genoas recent defensive work has attracted attention, with midfielder Frendrup, who spent last season on loan at the club, leading Serie A in tackles (61) and sharing the lead in interceptions (47), demonstrating the teams focus on a robust ball recovery style.

Fiorentina: Fiorentina dismissed Stefano Pioli as head coach, with former Primavera coach Daniele Galloppa taking over temporarily, while the club actively searches for a permanent replacement. Paolo Vanoli emerged as the leading candidate for the position, surpassing names like Roberto D’Aversa, Nesta, and Palladino. The team remains at the bottom of Serie A with only four points from ten matches, no wins, six losses, seven goals scored, and sixteen conceded, and needs to turn the game around quickly for the Conference League match against Mainz under Galloppas temporary management.

Italy Serie A table analysis for Genoa x Fiorentina

Genoa: Genoa is in 18th place, within the relegation zone, with only 6 points. As the final stretch of the championship approaches, this match is crucial to try to escape relegation and earn important points to stay in Serie A. A victory against Fiorentina could help reduce the gap to other teams in the relegation zone and provide hope in the fight against relegation.

Fiorentina: Fiorentina is in last place, in 20th position, with only 4 points and also in the relegation zone. The situation is even more complicated for the team, which urgently needs points to try to avoid relegation. Every point gained is vital, and this game against Genoa, which is close in the standings, could be decisive to revive chances of remaining in Italys top football league.

Summary: This game is of extreme importance for both teams, which fight to escape relegation. A win could mean an important breath in the fight not to go down.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Genoa x Fiorentina

Is betting on Genoa worth it?

🔵 Genoa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 41.47% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.95. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 410 times – having a profit of $799.50;
• And would lose other 590 times – having a loss of -$590.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$209.50.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.09%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.05. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 300 times – this would give you a profit of $615.00
• And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$85.00.

Is betting on Fiorentina worth it?

🔴 Fiorentina: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.44%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.45. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 280 times – having a profit of $406.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$314.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Genoa x Fiorentina

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Genoa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Genoa x Fiorentina

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Genoa and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Genoa.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Genoa.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Genoa x Fiorentina

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.