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Home » Predictions » Italy Serie A » Parma x Atalanta Betting tips for November 23 in Italy Serie A
Saturday, 23 November 2024, 19h45 Italy Serie A
Parma Parma
PREDICTION Atalanta Wins Probability 65% 1 X 2
Atalanta Atalanta
ODD: @1.65 Don't miss this prediction!

Parma x Atalanta Betting tips for November 23 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Parma x Atalanta, Saturday, 23/11/2024
📅 23/11/2024
19:45
Parma Parma
4.45
X
4.20
Atalanta Atalanta
1.65

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Parma x Atalanta:

🔮 Atalanta wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Atalanta, you can win up to $825.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Parma x Atalanta:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $414.0.
👉 Atalanta did not concede a goal in the last 4 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Atalanta scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Atalanta, Parma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Parma x Atalanta, with Parma as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Parma conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Parma conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Atalanta.
👉 In the last 5 road matches, Atalanta has not lost any of them.

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Summary

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Analysis from Parma x Atalanta for the Italy Serie A – 23 of November

🏟️ Parma X Atalanta – Italy Serie A
📅 23 of November, 2024 – 19:45
🔵 Parma – Winning probability: 16.04% | Fair line: 6.23
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 18.08% | Fair line: 5.53
🔴 Atalanta – Winning probability: 65.88% | Fair line: 1.52
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Parma
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

When the best bet on Parma x Atalanta is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1225929 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Parma x Atalanta

Is it a good idea to bet on Parma?

🔵 Parma: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 16.04%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.45. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 160 times – this would give you a profit of $552.00
  • And would lose other 840 times – losing -$840.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$288.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 18.08%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 180 times – profiting $576.00;
  • And would lose other 820 times – having a loss of -$820.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$244.00.

Is it worth betting on Atalanta?

🔴 Atalanta: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 65.88% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.65. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 660 times – this would give you a profit of $429.00
  • And would lose other 340 times – having a loss of -$340.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$89.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Parma x Atalanta

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Parma
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Parma x Atalanta

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +1.0 Parma and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.75 Parma.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Atalanta.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Parma x Atalanta

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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