Roma x Udinese Betting tips for November 9 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Roma x Udinese, Sunday, 9/11/2025

📅 9/11/2025 17:00

Roma 1.51

X 4.10

Udinese 6.20

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Roma x Udinese:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Roma x Udinese

Some important points for the tip for Roma x Udinese:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-212.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Udinese in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $625.0.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Udinese scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Udinese, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Roma x Udinese, with Roma as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Roma conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Udinese conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Roma has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Udinese.

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Roma vs Udinese?

Lets analyze the match between Roma and Udinese at the Stadio Olimpico, which is Romas usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. Roma averages 1 goal scored and conceded at home, with a higher volume of shots (17 per game) and ball possession (58%), showing control of the game. Udinese has a similar average of goals scored (1), but concedes more goals away (2 on average), with fewer shots and lower possession (46%).

Median odds clearly favor Roma: 1.51 for a home win, 4.16 for a draw, and 6.2 for an away win.

Calculating the normalized implied probabilities from the median odds gives approximately: Roma win ~62%, Draw ~18%, Udinese win ~10%. Considering recent stats — such as balanced offensive performance but more vulnerable defense of Udinese — my estimate is close to this, perhaps slightly more favorable to Roma due to home advantage.

The Bets Kenya model suggests predicted odds close to my estimates, but with a positive expected value only on the Roma win (~3.6%), while the draw and away win have negative values.

📰 News: Roma comes confident after a good European performance despite key injuries in attack; Udinese remains undefeated in Serie A but suffers defensively — they have conceded the most goals so far — plus muscular absences that could weigh against them in this tough away match.

📈 Positional Analysis: With Roma in a high position in the table (4th place) aiming to stay in the top spots, there is extra motivation to win at home against a team like Udinese, which is still seeking defensive stability despite recent unbeaten streaks.

Based on all this, I fully agree with the Bets Kenya model indicating a positive value only on the Roma victory. It’s a safe bet considering the technical/tactical dominance shown by recent stats and injury news.
My suggestion is to bet on the home team victory, as it offers a good risk/return balance with a calculated EV close to 3-4% positive.
Draw or away win do not present interesting expected value here.

⚽️💰🏆

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Roma x Udinese?

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Analysis from Roma x Udinese for the Italy Serie A – 9 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Roma x Udinese right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1434498 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on the match between Roma and Udinese

AS Roma: AS Roma, currently in fourth place in Serie A, secured a 2-0 victory over Rangers at Ibrox, a result Gasperini described as a confidence boost for the team and which confirmed the improvement in striker Dovbyks physical condition; however, the team still faces a series of injuries – striker Evan Ferguson remains out after a clash with Parma, despite being called up by Ireland, and Leon Bailey is sidelined for at least 20 days due to a left biceps injury.

Udinese: Udinese has resumed winning, beating Atalanta 1-0 on November 1 thanks to a goal from Nicolò Zaniolo, who rediscovered his scoring touch with three goals in the first ten rounds of the league after a long drought, being the only Serie A team that has not lost this season; however, defensive vulnerabilities persist, with 15 goals conceded, the highest in the competition, and coach Ivan Juric is dealing with several absences for the match against Roma on November 9, highlighting the muscular issue of striker Davis, along with the ongoing unavailability of De Roon and Maldini for Atalantas squad, while Udineses probable lineup will include Zaniolo alongside Buksa and the possible return of Davis if he recovers, with Juric emphasizing the need for confidence and continuity to improve the teams maturity and performance.

Table analysis for the match between Roma x Udinese

Roma: Roma is in 4th place with 21 points, fighting for a direct spot in the Champions League, which is the teams goal this season. This match against Udinese is very important to maintain or improve this position that guarantees participation in the most desired European competition. Losing points here could mean losing the spot to nearby teams like AC Milan, Inter Milan, and Napoli.

Udinese: Udinese is in 9th place with 15 points, comfortably mid-table, but without real chances to compete for European qualification spots this round. Gaining or losing points in this match should not significantly change their final position, so the importance of the game for Udinese is moderate, focusing more on maintaining performance and stability.

Summary: The game is very important for Roma, aiming to secure a direct Champions League spot, while for Udinese it has moderate importance, as they are more relaxed in the table and have no major objectives at this stage of the season.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Roma x Udinese

Should you bet on Roma?

🔵 Roma: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 66.54%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.51. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 670 times – profiting $341.70;
• And would have lost other 330 times – with a loss of -$330.00 because of them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$11.70. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 19.52%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 200 times – this would give you a profit of $620.00
• And would lose other 800 times – having a loss of -$800.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$180.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Udinese?

🔴 Udinese: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.94% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 140 times – this would give you a profit of $728.00
• And would have lost other 860 times – with a loss of -$860.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$132.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Roma x Udinese

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Roma
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Roma x Udinese

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 Roma and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Roma.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Roma x Udinese

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.50 goals.