Verona x Atalanta Betting tips for December 6 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Verona x Atalanta, Saturday, 6/12/2025

📅 6/12/2025 19:45

Verona 4.33

X 3.60

Atalanta 1.78

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Verona x Atalanta:

🔮 Atalanta wins the match
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Important information for your tip for Verona x Atalanta:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Verona in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $30.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Verona scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Atalanta scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Verona matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Verona conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Verona conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Atalanta.
👉 Even as a visitor, Atalanta won the last 5 head-to-head matches Verona´s territory

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for Verona vs Atalanta?

Lets analyze the match between Hellas Verona and Atalanta at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Veronas home ground. The stadium is the true home of Hellas Verona, so they play on their usual field, which can be an important factor in balancing the teams.

📈 Table analysis: Hellas Verona is at the bottom of Serie A without any wins so far and with only 6 points after 13 rounds. This shows a team under heavy pressure and with low morale. Meanwhile, Atalanta is in a positive moment, with recent important victories in Serie A and European and national competitions, demonstrating high confidence and good offensive performance.

Statistically, Verona averages 1 goal scored per game at home but also concedes 1 goal per match; their ball possession is lower (44%) compared to the opponent (56%). Additionally, they havent won any of the last five home league games. On the other hand, Atalanta also scores about 1 goal per away game and concedes 1; however, they shoot more (14 vs 11) and have higher ball possession (56%), showing clear technical superiority.

Calculating fair probabilities based on median odds adjusted for house margins: we have approximately 19% for Verona win, 22% for draw, and 59% for Atalanta win. This reflects the current scenario of the teams well.

From these fair probabilities, we calculate fair odds close to: 5.3 for Verona win, 4.5 for draw, and 1.7 for Atalanta win. Comparing with the final odds offered by the bookmakers (5/3.75/1.666), we see that there is a positive expected value only in the bet on the visiting team.

Analyzing the calculated expected values: only the bet on Atalantas victory shows a positive EV above 5%, confirming that this is the best bet based on the combined statistical data and recent news about team form.

⚽️💡
The Bets Kenya model clearly suggests betting on the visiting team with a positive expected value (~6.7%), and I fully agree! Hellas Veronas poor form combined with Atalantas recent offensive strength reinforces this safe choice.

📰 News:
Hellas is in a deep crisis without wins so far in the championship while preparing a limited lineup due to suspension/physical situation of some key players.
Atalanta, on the other hand, is on a roll after significant victories, including outside Italy in the Champions League.
These facts support our statistical analysis indicating clear favoritism for the visitors.

📈 Positioning:
The brutal difference between the teams in current positions further reinforces that the visiting team should dominate this match, seeking to maintain their good streak while the home team desperately fights for points but faces evident technical difficulties.

That said, my recommendation is to strongly bet on Atalantas victory! 🚀🔥 It is a safe bet with good potential return considering all the variables analyzed!

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Verona x Atalanta?

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Analysis from Verona x Atalanta for the Italy Serie A – 6 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Verona and Atalanta.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1449132 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news on the match between Verona and Atalanta

Hellas Verona: Hellas Verona remains at the bottom of Serie A, with no wins this season and occupying the last position with six points after the 13th round; the team lost 2-1 to Genoa on November 29, 2025, confirming their winless streak and staying in the relegation zone. Coach Gabriele Zanetti is preparing for the next match against Atalanta on December 6, 2025, lining up a 3-5-2 formation with Marco Montipò in goal, Nicolás Nuñez, Stefan Nelsson, and Valerio Valentini in defense, a midfield trio of Davide Niasse, Gabriele Gagliardini (suspended), and Alessandro Bradarić (recovering from injury), and a likely attack line featuring Davide Giovane alongside in-form Jhojan Mosquera, as the club hopes to break the streak and climb out of the last place.

Atalanta: Atalanta is in good form, beating Fiorentina 2-1 on November 30, with the attacking trio of Gianluca Scamacca, Ademola Lookman, and Charles De Ketelaere scoring the goals, after a dominant 3-0 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League group stage on November 26, and a 4-0 win against Genoa in the Coppa Italia on December 3. Gian Piero Zanetti continues to rely on a 3-5-2 setup with Marco Palladino in goal, Kossounou, Hien, and Djimsiti in defense, De Roon, Ederson, Bellanova, and Zappacosta in midfield, while Lookman, De Ketelaere, and Scamacca are the main offensive threats. Lookman’s recent form has attracted interest from Galatasaray, but the Percassi family reaffirmed their intention to keep him, and the team arrives for the next Serie A match against Hellas Verona in relatively good shape, except for Dumfries’ suspension and minor injury concerns.

Table analysis for the game between Verona and Atalanta

Verona: Verona is at the bottom of the table with only 6 points, far from the safety zone and practically without mathematical chances to avoid relegation at this stage of the championship. This match against Atalanta is important to try to react and earn points that could keep some hope alive, but in practice, the team is fighting to escape a very difficult situation. Therefore, the game is highly significant for Verona, which needs to score points to try to stay in Serie A.

Atalanta: Atalanta is in 12th place with 16 points, in a relatively safe position, far from both the relegation zone and the spots for international competitions. The team is in a moment where accumulating points can solidify its stay in the first division, but the match does not determine major changes in the current standings. For Atalanta, the game is important to maintain consistency and distance from the lower part, but it is not decisive for bigger goals at this moment.

Summary: The game is quite relevant for Verona, which fights to escape relegation, while for Atalanta it has moderate importance, focused on maintaining stability in the table. Thus, the match is more crucial for the home team than for the visitor.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Verona x Atalanta

Is betting on Verona worth it?

🔵 Verona: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 14.67% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.33. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 150 times – profiting $499.50;
• And would lose other 850 times – losing -$850.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$350.50.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.6% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 170 times – having a profit of $442.00;
• And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$388.00.

Should you bet on Atalanta?

🔴 Atalanta: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 68.72% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.78. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 690 times – profiting $538.20;
• And would lose other 310 times – having a loss of -$310.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$228.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Verona x Atalanta

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Verona
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Verona x Atalanta

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Verona and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.75 Verona.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Verona.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Verona x Atalanta

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.