📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Mazatlan FC x Toluca
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Analysis from Mazatlan FC x Toluca for the Mexico Clausura – 22 of January
🏟️ Mazatlan FC X Toluca – Mexico Clausura
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Mazatlan FC and Toluca.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 290581 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Mazatlan FC x Toluca
Is betting on Mazatlan FC worth it?
🔵 Mazatlan FC: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 42.44% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.45. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 420 times – this would give you a profit of $609.00
- And would lose other 580 times – losing -$580.00 with them.
Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$29.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 17.3% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.21. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 170 times – this would give you a profit of $375.70
- And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$454.30.
Is it a good idea to bet on Toluca?
🔴 Toluca: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 40.26% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.73. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 400 times – this would give you a profit of $692.00
- And would lose other 600 times – losing -$600.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$92.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Mazatlan FC x Toluca
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Mazatlan FC
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Mazatlan FC x Toluca
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Mazatlan FC and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Mazatlan FC.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Mazatlan FC.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Mazatlan FC x Toluca
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
You can check out our tips on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves