📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Puebla x Tijuana
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Analysis from Puebla x Tijuana for the Mexico Clausura – 22 of January
🏟️ Puebla X Tijuana – Mexico Clausura
When the best bet on Puebla x Tijuana is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 290581 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Puebla x Tijuana
Is betting on Puebla worth it?
🔵 Puebla: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 67.96% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.09. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 680 times – this would give you a profit of $741.20
- And would lose other 320 times – losing -$320.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$421.20.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 13.25% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.13. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 130 times – having a profit of $277.03;
- And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$592.97.
Should you bet on Tijuana?
🔴 Tijuana: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 18.79%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $475.00
- And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$335.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Puebla x Tijuana
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Puebla
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Puebla x Tijuana
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Puebla, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Puebla.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Tijuana.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Puebla x Tijuana
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves