San Jose Earthquakes x New York Red Bulls Betting tips for July 6 in USA MLS

Our betting tip for San Jose Earthquakes x New York Red Bulls, Sunday, 6/7/2025

📅 6/7/2025 02:30

San Jose Earthquakes 1.99

X 3.75

New York Red Bulls 3.30

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for San Jose Earthquakes x New York Red Bulls:

🔮 San Jose Earthquakes wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on San Jose Earthquakes, you can win up to $995.00!

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Some important points for the tip for San Jose Earthquakes x New York Red Bulls:

👉 If you had bet $100 on San Jose Earthquakes in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-148.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on New York Red Bulls in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-230.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, San Jose Earthquakes scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, New York Red Bulls scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, San Jose Earthquakes conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against New York Red Bulls.
👉 Even as a visitor, New York Red Bulls won the last 4 head-to-head matches San Jose Earthquakes´s territory

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs New York Red Bulls:

Lets analyze the match between San Jose Earthquakes and New York Red Bulls at PayPal Park, which is the official stadium of San Jose, ensuring them the home advantage. ⚽️

Statistically, San Jose has shown strength at home with 2 wins and no losses in the last 5 games at their stadium, averaging 2 goals per game and also conceding 2 goals. They have more shots (12) and corners (8) per game at home compared to the visiting team. The Red Bulls have a reasonable away performance with only one win in the last five away games, averaging 1 goal per match.

Median odds indicate a slight favoritism for San Jose (2.00), followed by a draw (3.67) and an away win (3.30). Converting these odds into normalized implied probabilities, we get approximately: San Jose win ~47%, draw ~25%, Red Bulls win ~28%. Considering the superior offensive stats of the home team, their real home advantage at PayPal Park, and their better recent form compared to the visitors, my fair estimate for the probabilities would be close to these or even slightly more favorable to the home team.

The Bets Kenya model suggests very low predicted odds for the home team (~1.81), indicating a high probability of their victory (~55%), while it overestimates the odds for a draw (~4.64) and the visitors (~4.34), implying low chances for these outcomes.

Evaluating the expected value in the final odds offered by the bookmakers: betting on San Joses victory has a positive EV above 10%, showing clear value in this bet; the draw and away win have negative EV according to our calculations.

📰 The news supports this analysis: despite recent changes in the Earthquakes squad with young talents gaining space under Bruce Arena, they maintain good recent form with only one defeat in the last six MLS games; additionally, they play at their usual stadium PayPal Park, where they have a historical advantage over the Red Bulls, who are in good form but less consistent away.

Suggestion: Bet on San Jose Earthquakes victory, as there is evident value in this bet both statistically and based on recent news analysis about the teams.
The model aligns with me on this point by indicating this as a positive value bet!

Good luck! 🍀

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Analysis from San Jose Earthquakes x New York Red Bulls for the USA MLS – 6 of July

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between San Jose Earthquakes and New York Red Bulls.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1348834 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for San Jose Earthquakes x New York Red Bulls

Should you bet on San Jose Earthquakes?

🔵 San Jose Earthquakes: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 58.08% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.99. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 580 times – this would give you a profit of $574.20
• And would lose other 420 times – losing -$420.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$154.20.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.01%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – profiting $660.00;
• And would lose other 760 times – losing -$760.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$100.00.

Is betting on New York Red Bulls worth it?

🔴 New York Red Bulls: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.91%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 180 times – having a profit of $414.00;
• And would lose other 820 times – losing -$820.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$406.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match San Jose Earthquakes x New York Red Bulls

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 San Jose Earthquakes
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for San Jose Earthquakes x New York Red Bulls

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 San Jose Earthquakes and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 San Jose Earthquakes.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 San Jose Earthquakes.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for San Jose Earthquakes x New York Red Bulls

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.