📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for AC Ajaccio x Auxerre
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Analysis from AC Ajaccio x Auxerre for the France Ligue 2 – 15 of January
🏟️ AC Ajaccio X Auxerre – France Ligue 2
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between AC Ajaccio and Auxerre.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 287992 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the Match Odds market for AC Ajaccio x Auxerre
Is betting on AC Ajaccio worth it?
🔵 AC Ajaccio: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 54.31%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.86. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 540 times – this would give you a profit of $467.10
- And would have lost other 460 times – with a loss of -$460.00 because of them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$7.10 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 26.39% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $585.00
- And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$155.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Auxerre?
🔴 Auxerre: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.3% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.94. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $558.60
- And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$251.40.
Handicaps analysis for the match AC Ajaccio x Auxerre
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 AC Ajaccio
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AC Ajaccio x Auxerre
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 AC Ajaccio, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 AC Ajaccio.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Auxerre.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AC Ajaccio x Auxerre
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves