AC Marinhense x Fatima Betting tips for September 29 in Portugal Campeonato Nacional
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29/9/2024 11:00 |
 AC Marinhense1.70 |
X 3.40 |
Fatima  4.50 |
This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for AC Marinhense x Fatima:
๐ฎ AC Marinhense wins the match
๐ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on AC Marinhense, you can win up to $850.00!
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Important information for your tip for AC Marinhense x Fatima: ๐ If you had bet $100 on AC Marinhense in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-218.0. |
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Analysis from AC Marinhense x Fatima for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 29 of September
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๐๏ธ AC Marinhense X Fatima – Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for AC Marinhense x Fatima right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1190630 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for AC Marinhense x Fatima
Is betting on AC Marinhense worth it?
๐ต AC Marinhense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 71.63% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 720 times – this would give you a profit of $504.00
- And would lose other 280 times – losing -$280.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of ๐ฐ$224.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
โช draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.77% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 190 times – profiting $456.00;
- And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of ๐ฐ-$354.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Fatima?
๐ด Fatima: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 9.59% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 100 times – this would give you a profit of $350.00
- And would have lost other 900 times – with a loss of -$900.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐ฐ-$550.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match AC Marinhense x Fatima
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
โ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 AC Marinhense
โฝ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AC Marinhense x Fatima
โ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 AC Marinhense and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 AC Marinhense.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 AC Marinhense.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AC Marinhense x Fatima
โฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
