📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Academica x Rio Ave
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Analysis from Academica x Rio Ave for the Portugal Segunda Liga – 19 of January
🏟️ Academica X Rio Ave – Portugal Segunda Liga
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Academica x Rio Ave right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 289909 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Academica x Rio Ave
Should you bet on Academica?
🔵 Academica: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.05% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.01. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 120 times – this would give you a profit of $361.80
- And would lose other 880 times – losing -$880.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$518.20.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 48.38%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.48. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 480 times – having a profit of $1192.80;
- And would have lost other 520 times – with a loss of -$520.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$672.80.
Is it a good idea to bet on Rio Ave?
🔴 Rio Ave: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 39.57% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 400 times – having a profit of $298.00;
- And would lose other 600 times – losing -$600.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$302.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Academica x Rio Ave
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Academica
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Academica x Rio Ave
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Academica, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Academica.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Academica x Rio Ave
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves