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Home » Predictions » AD Confianca x Lagarto Betting tips for February 2 in Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
Sunday, 02 February 2025, 20h00 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
AD Confianca AD Confianca
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 32% 1 X 2
Lagarto Lagarto
ODD: @3.28 Don't miss this prediction!

AD Confianca x Lagarto Betting tips for February 2 in Brazil Campeonato Sergipano

Our betting tip for AD Confianca x Lagarto, Sunday, 2/2/2025
📅 2/2/2025
20:00
AD Confianca AD Confianca
1.95
X
3.28
Lagarto Lagarto
3.35

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for AD Confianca x Lagarto:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1640.00!

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The main points for the tip for AD Confianca x Lagarto:

👉 If you had bet $100 on AD Confianca in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $374.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Lagarto in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-318.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, AD Confianca scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between AD Confianca x Lagarto, with AD Confianca as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 AD Confianca is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 In the last 5 road matches, Lagarto has not lost any of them.
👉 AD Confianca has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Lagarto playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from AD Confianca x Lagarto for the Brazil Campeonato Sergipano – 2 of February

🏟️ AD Confianca X Lagarto – Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
📅 2 of February, 2025 – 20:00
🔵 AD Confianca – Winning probability: 44.40% | Fair line: 2.25
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 32.17% | Fair line: 3.11
🔴 Lagarto – Winning probability: 23.43% | Fair line: 4.27
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 AD Confianca
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for AD Confianca x Lagarto right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1255121 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for AD Confianca x Lagarto

Is it worth betting on AD Confianca?

🔵 AD Confianca: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 44.4%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.95. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 440 times – profiting $418.00;
  • And would have lost other 560 times – with a loss of -$560.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$142.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 32.17%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.28. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $729.60
  • And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$49.60.

Should you bet on Lagarto?

🔴 Lagarto: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.43% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.35. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 230 times – this would give you a profit of $540.50
  • And would lose other 770 times – having a loss of -$770.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$229.50.

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Handicaps analysis for the match AD Confianca x Lagarto

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 AD Confianca
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AD Confianca x Lagarto

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 AD Confianca and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 AD Confianca.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AD Confianca x Lagarto

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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